3670 Ashton Ct · Gulf Shores, AL 36542

$359,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,705 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2003 7,492 sqft lot Est $370k · at est. $47/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3670 Ashton Court in Kelsey Place where comfort, flexibility, and location come together in the heart of Gulf Shores. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers an open layout with a spacious living area, split floor plan, and a versatile flex space that can easily serve as a home office, guest room, or potential 4th bedroom. The kitchen features abundant counter space, bar seating, and a seamless flow into the main living area, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Tile flooring throughout the main areas adds durability and easy maintenance, ideal for coastal living. The private primary suite offers a large layout, walk in closet, and en suite bath, while the additional bedrooms

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property conveys any mineral rights the owner has
• HOA & community: Annual association fee ($560) covering pool; Association maintains outdoor pool; Transfer fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached double garage with automatic door; Two covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Water: Gulf Shores Utilities; Electric: Baldwin EMC; Sewer/power on public utilities
• Home design: Resale single-story home; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Covered, screened rear porch; Subdivision lot; Community/association pool (outdoor)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with attached primary bath; First-floor primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling; Heating present
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom floor plan; No fireplace; Living/Dining open area; Living/Dining/Kitchen combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 0.2% in Gulf Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#61 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Shores Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #63 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,062 students, 44% FRL); Gulf Shores Middle School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 589 students, 48% FRL); Gulf Shores High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 799 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1191 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $359k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,915 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,985
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3677 Ashton Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-3%)	5mo	$330,000	$199	89
3659 Jordan Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+5%)	10mo	$329,000	$184	82
618 Pinehurst Pt	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+2%)	1mo	$424,500	$244	66
630 Pinehurst Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,774 (+4%)	2mo	$385,000	$217	61
22411 Geno Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-1%)	20mo	$760,000	$450	49
3614 Ancient Oak Cir	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,844 (+8%)	15mo	$347,500	$188	48
4608 Coral Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+11%)	20mo	$540,000	$285	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-63,080
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-56,312
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36542

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1191
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $936/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,731

Max offer price $340,649

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $-2	+0% $-104	+5% $-205	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-207	+0% $-104	+5% $-1	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $-13	base $-104	+0.5pp $-197	+1.0pp $-292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22323 Cotton Creek Dr Gulf Shores, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	0.44mi
609 Saint Andrews Dr Gulf Shores, AL	3.0	3.0	2064	$5,500	$2.66	22d	1	1.02mi
22413 Bobcat Ln Orange Beach, AL	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	44d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $359,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $359,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $359,000 Active
17. 2006-04-03
    soldstatus $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $936 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 57.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$936
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,495
• − Management: −$2,495
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$7,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,836
• After-tax cash flow: $589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Gulf Shores

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #8945

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Shores, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 18,906
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,906
• Household income: $79,639
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.95%
• Current HPI: 257.6494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.71%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+75.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $359,000 BCAR
• 2006-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $936 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.