33 Marshall Pl · Lockport, NY 14094

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1870 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment! This property is a Blank Canvas, completely gutted and ready to be restored! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath in the city! Rehab project ready to be restored with endless possibilities!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1870
• Listed 93 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Public water available; Water status: Not connected; Electric water heater; Gas water heater
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (49 x 148)

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; See remarks / other interior details
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.0% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $22,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 141.64%
• DSCR: 7.30
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 Outwater Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,255 (+2%)	1mo	$240,000	$191	85
471 Hawley St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,208 (-1%)	6mo	$132,000	$109	83
111 Allen St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,172 (-4%)	2mo	$110,000	$94	81
363 N Transit St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,309 (+7%)	10mo	$147,000	$112	76
9 Corinthia St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+8%)	10mo	$173,000	$131	70
301 Hawley St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-6%)	3mo	$150,000	$130	68
99 Olcott St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+2%)	2mo	$159,000	$128	68
256 N Transit St	0.25mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,330 (+9%)	8mo	$47,000	$35	62
43 Prentice St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+12%)	7mo	$115,000	$84	62
258 Grand St	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,113 (-9%)	2mo	$125,000	$112	59
370 Green St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,308 (+7%)	3mo	$195,000	$149	59
305 Clinton St	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,344 (+10%)	8mo	$120,000	$89	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $49,482
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.38×
• Total profit: $114,630
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $246

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $840	-5% $833	+0% $826	+5% $819	+10% $812
Rent	-10% $724	-5% $775	+0% $826	+5% $877	+10% $928
Rate	-1.0pp $839	-0.5pp $833	base $826	+0.5pp $820	+1.0pp $813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Dayton St Lockport, NY	3.0	1.0	930	$1,150	$1.24	13d	1	0.61mi
47 Waterman St Unit 3 Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	24d	1	0.93mi
327 High St Lockport, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	690	$1,920	$2.78	3d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $25,000 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $25,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $25,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $25,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-05-06
   status Active
6. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
8. 2026-02-16
   listed $25,000 Active
9. 2025-01-28
   soldstatus $17,000 Closed 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Great Investment! This property is a Blank Canvas, completely gutted and ready to be restored! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath in the city! Rehab project ready to be restored with endless possibilities!

10. 2024-12-03
    status Pending 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Great Investment! This property is a Blank Canvas, completely gutted and ready to be restored! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath in the city! Rehab project ready to be restored with endless possibilities!

11. 2024-06-20
    listed $22,000 Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Great Investment! This property is a Blank Canvas, completely gutted and ready to be restored! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath in the city! Rehab project ready to be restored with endless possibilities!

12. 2024-05-06
    historical
13. 2023-11-06
    listed $29,900 Active
14. 2020-12-29
    soldstatus $12,000 Closed Sale or Rented
15. 2020-08-28
    status Pending Sale
16. 2020-08-25
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
17. 2020-07-22
    listed $19,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $10,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,433
• After-tax cash flow: $7,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 50,153
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+25.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $25,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-28 Sold (MLS) $17,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-06-20 Listed $22,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-11-06 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-12-29 Sold (MLS) $12,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-08-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-08-25 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2020-07-22 Listed $19,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $637 · -19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.