550 S State St · Sutherlin, OR 97479

$124,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition $70/sqft · at area comps Est $124k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sizeable 1782sqft four-bedroom two-bath home on parks sizeable lot.This home features: new paint, vinyl flooring throughout, heat pump for winter warmth and summer cool. You will appreciate the fourth bedroom for all kinds of reasons, guest room, office, extended family, hobby room or you may need that extra space for your family.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Heat pump
• New paint

Tags

• NEW PAINT
• VINYL FLOORING
• HEAT PUMP
• FOURTH BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $124k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.23%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,844
• List price: $124,000
• Delta: 0.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Easy St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	2mo	$310,000	$174	76
189 Raintree Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	1mo	$320,000	$180	74
279 Sunnyside Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	10mo	$279,000	$157	72
550 S State St #115	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-9%)	2mo	$100,000	$62	65
1200 E Central Ave #84	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	3mo	$90,000	$51	64
788 Schoon Mountain Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-4%)	6mo	$375,000	$219	61
550 S State St #139	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,539 (-14%)	6mo	$125,800	$82	59
328 S State St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (-12%)	6mo	$290,000	$185	48
1088 Mountain View Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-8%)	23mo	$425,000	$258	42
1200 E Central Ave #49	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+14%)	16mo	$183,500	$90	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $31,953
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $94,932
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97479

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,085

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $902	-5% $860	+0% $817	+5% $774	+10% $731
Rent	-10% $649	-5% $733	+0% $817	+5% $900	+10% $984
Rate	-1.0pp $879	-0.5pp $848	base $817	+0.5pp $785	+1.0pp $752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $124,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-05-04
   status Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Sizeable 1782sqft four-bedroom two-bath home on parks sizeable lot.This home features: new paint, vinyl flooring throughout, heat pump for winter warmth and summer cool. You will appreciate the fourth bedroom for all kinds of reasons, guest room, office, extended family, hobby room or you may need that extra space for your family.

5. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Sizeable 1782sqft four-bedroom two-bath home on parks sizeable lot.This home features: new paint, vinyl flooring throughout, heat pump for winter warmth and summer cool. You will appreciate the fourth bedroom for all kinds of reasons, guest room, office, extended family, hobby room or you may need that extra space for your family.

6. 2026-04-21
   listed $124,000 Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Sizeable 1782sqft four-bedroom two-bath home on parks sizeable lot.This home features: new paint, vinyl flooring throughout, heat pump for winter warmth and summer cool. You will appreciate the fourth bedroom for all kinds of reasons, guest room, office, extended family, hobby room or you may need that extra space for your family.

7. 2023-08-11
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   1995, 3 bedroom, 2 full bathrooms manufactured home with large fenced yard and lots of parking. Newer roof and heat pump! Inside are vaulted ceilings throughout, open living, kitchen, and dining area, and great separation of space. Outside features include: Large covered deck, newer storage shed, low maintenance fenced yard, 2 car carport and extra side parking!

8. 2023-07-27
   status Pending 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   1995, 3 bedroom, 2 full bathrooms manufactured home with large fenced yard and lots of parking. Newer roof and heat pump! Inside are vaulted ceilings throughout, open living, kitchen, and dining area, and great separation of space. Outside features include: Large covered deck, newer storage shed, low maintenance fenced yard, 2 car carport and extra side parking!

9. 2023-07-19
   listed $79,000 Active 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   1995, 3 bedroom, 2 full bathrooms manufactured home with large fenced yard and lots of parking. Newer roof and heat pump! Inside are vaulted ceilings throughout, open living, kitchen, and dining area, and great separation of space. Outside features include: Large covered deck, newer storage shed, low maintenance fenced yard, 2 car carport and extra side parking!

10. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
11. 2023-06-02
    status Pending
12. 2023-04-25
    price $125,000
13. 2023-04-13
    price $137,999
14. 2023-03-24
    listed $145,000 Active
15. 2007-09-12
    historical
16. 2007-03-29
    listed $38,500
17. 2006-10-19
    soldstatus $73,000
18. 2006-09-01
    soldstatus $47,900
19. 2006-08-25
    historical
20. 2006-08-10
    historical
21. 2006-04-24
    soldstatus $60,000
22. 2006-04-03
    historical
23. 2006-01-25
    listed $47,900
24. 2006-01-03
    listed $63,500
25. 2005-10-10
    listed $73,000
26. 2005-08-12
    soldstatus $47,900
27. 2005-06-22
    historical
28. 2005-06-18
    listed $49,900
29. 2004-11-12
    soldstatus $43,000
30. 2004-11-04
    historical
31. 2004-09-13
    listed $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $8,321
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,997
• After-tax cash flow: $7,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1782 sq ft four-bedroom two-bath manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both new lighting fixtures — enhances interior aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both new lighting fixtures — enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sutherlin SD 130
• NCES district ID: 4111940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,425
• Composite: 24.79/100
• National rank: #7598
• State rank: #47 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sutherlin

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sutherlin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,479

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.34%
• Current HPI: 328.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+163.8% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $124,000 RMLS
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) $70,000 RMLS
• 2023-07-27 Pending — RMLS
• 2023-07-19 Listed $79,000 RMLS
• 2023-06-16 Sold (MLS) $110,000 RMLS
• 2023-06-02 Pending — RMLS
• 2023-04-25 Price Changed $125,000 RMLS
• 2023-04-13 Price Changed $137,999 RMLS
• 2023-03-24 Listed $145,000 RMLS
• 2007-09-12 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2007-03-29 Listed $38,500 MLSCO
• 2006-10-19 Sold (MLS) $73,000 RMLS
• 2006-09-01 Sold (MLS) $47,900 RMLS
• 2006-08-25 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-08-10 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-04-24 Sold (MLS) $60,000 RMLS
• 2006-04-03 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-01-25 Listed $47,900 RMLS
• 2006-01-03 Listed $63,500 RMLS
• 2005-10-10 Listed $73,000 RMLS
• 2005-08-12 Sold (MLS) $47,900 RMLS
• 2005-06-22 Delisted — RMLS
• 2005-06-18 Listed $49,900 RMLS
• 2004-11-12 Sold (MLS) $43,000 RMLS
• 2004-11-04 Delisted — RMLS
• 2004-09-13 Listed $47,000 RMLS