209 Walnut St · Marshall, MN 56258

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,362 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1920 0.37 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 4.2% in Marshall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#47 in MN, #1,265 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, commute F.
• Marshall Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #163 of 301 in MN (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.59%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $27,699
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $73,317
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56258

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $370/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $505

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $619	+0% $600	+5% $582	+10% $564
Rent	-10% $501	-5% $551	+0% $600	+5% $650	+10% $700
Rate	-1.0pp $633	-0.5pp $617	base $600	+0.5pp $584	+1.0pp $566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 W Lyon St Unit 100 Marshall, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	44d	1	0.30mi
231 Legion Field Rd Unit 104 Marshall, MN	2.0	1.0	980	$1,495	$1.53	44d	1	0.76mi
1010 Clarice Ave Unit 102 Marshall, MN	2.0	1.0	957	$1,395	$1.46	44d	1	1.40mi
1010 Clarice Ave Unit 201 Marshall, MN	2.0	1.0	970	$1,325	$1.37	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   status Active
3. 2026-02-10
   price $65,000
4. 2026-02-09
   historical
5. 2026-01-27
   listed $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $370 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$370
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,566
• After-tax cash flow: $5,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2718940
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,798
• Composite: 40.09/100
• National rank: #3807
• State rank: #163 of 301 in MN

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #1265

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marshall, MN
• County: Lyon County · 15,888 people
• City population: 15,888
• Metro: Marshall, MN
• Population (ZIP): 15,888
• Household income: $72,731
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 483.0

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,369 people
• By 2030: 24,890 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 23,599 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 22,383 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 20,076 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 18,901 · -25.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% English 6% Lithuanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 33.1% · R 64.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -1.6pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+9.2 2008: R+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.90%
• Current HPI: 177.471
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marshall, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $76,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $370 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.