540316 Lem Turner Rd · Nassau Village-Ratliff, FL 32011

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Built 2025 1.00 ac lot Est $364k · 31% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 3/2 MFH on 1 acre lot convenient to Callahan & I 295. This home has a large GR & is open to kitchen with lots of cabinets & big island. The DR is off kitchen. Two BRs on one end have walk in closets & share a roomy bath room while the Master suite is on the other end for privacy & the master bath has two vanities with a tub shower combo. The walk in closet is extra roomy. The outside is very quiet with room for pets & garden plus two roomy shed for lots of extra storage. This home is affordably priced & is finished & ready to move in.

Key facts

• Big island
• Master suite
• Lots of cabinets

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• LARGE GR
• LOTS OF CABINETS
• BIG ISLAND
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• MASTER SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Few trees on the lot; County road frontage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Nassau Village-Ratliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,364 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $364,500
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54123 Lisa Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-1%)	1mo	$380,000	$257	70
54174 Deerfield Country Club Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+3%)	15mo	$389,000	$252	62
54178 Fouracre Cir	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,626 (+8%)	10mo	$385,000	$237	59
54292 Armstrong Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-11%)	13mo	$325,000	$243	49
54371 Hazel Jones Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+12%)	22mo	$329,500	$197	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $116,121
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $357,359
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32011

• Home prices YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,117/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,909

Max offer price $194,790

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-171	-5% $-241	+0% $-312	+5% $-383	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-372	+0% $-312	+5% $-252	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-248	base $-312	+0.5pp $-377	+1.0pp $-443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   price $249,900
3. 2025-09-24
   status Active
4. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-07-10
   listed $259,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$957/yr (+$80/mo · 85.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,117
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,011
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nassau Village-Ratliff

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nassau Village-Ratliff, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,716

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.56%
• Current HPI: 351.8301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $249,900 realMLS
• 2025-09-24 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-09-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $259,900 realMLS