Bal Harbour Plan · North Sarasota, FL 34234

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Discover modern living in our stunning 2026 model manufactured home, featuring three spacious bedrooms and 2 baths, perfectly situated in our newly expanded area. This home is designed for comfort and convenience, ideal for families or those looking to downsize without compromising on quality. * * Home Features: * * - * * Bedrooms: * * Three cozy bedrooms with ample closet space, perfect for relaxation and privacy. - * * Bathrooms: * * Two full bath, equipped with modern fixtures. - * * Open Living Space: * * A bright and airy layout that seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, making it perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. * * Community Amenities: * * - * * Swimming Pool & Lap Pool: * * Enjoy leisurely swims in our sparkling community pool or get in shape with dedicated lanes in the lap pool. - * * Hot Tub: * * Unwind after a long day in our relaxing hot tub. - * * Gym: * * Stay fit with access to our fully-equipped gym, catering to all your workout needs. - * * Clubhouse: * * Join in on various HOA activities in our welcoming clubhouse, perfect for socializing and community events. - * * Sports Facilities: * * Engage in friendly competition on our shuffleboard and pickleball courts. - * * Pavilion: * * Host cookouts and gatherings in our charming pavilion, surrounded by lush landscaping. Live a vibrant lifestyle in a community designed for relaxation and recreation. This home is not just a place to live; it's a gateway to a fulfilling and active lifesty

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• SWIMMING POOL
• LAP POOL
• HOT TUB
• FULLY EQUIPPED GYM
• CLUBHOUSE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#349 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,285/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1306% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,069
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,501
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34234

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    listed $199,900 Active 1589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1589 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Discover modern living in our stunning 2026 model manufactured home, featuring three spacious bedrooms and 2 baths, perfectly situated in our newly expanded area. This home is designed for comfort and convenience, ideal for families or those looking to downsize without compromising on quality. * * Home Features: * * - * * Bedrooms: * * Three cozy bedrooms with ample closet space, perfect for relaxation and privacy. - * * Bathrooms: * * Two full bath, equipped with modern fixtures. - * * Open Living Space: * * A bright and airy layout that seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, making it perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. * * Community Amenities: * * - * * Swimming Pool & Lap Pool: * * Enjoy leisurely swims in our sparkling community pool or get in shape with dedicated lanes in the lap pool. - * * Hot Tub: * * Unwind after a long day in our relaxing hot tub. - * * Gym: * * Stay fit with access to our fully-equipped gym, catering to all your workout needs. - * * Clubhouse: * * Join in on various HOA activities in our welcoming clubhouse, perfect for socializing and community events. - * * Sports Facilities: * * Engage in friendly competition on our shuffleboard and pickleball courts. - * * Pavilion: * * Host cookouts and gatherings in our charming pavilion, surrounded by lush landscaping. Live a vibrant lifestyle in a community designed for relaxation and recreation. This home is not just a place to live; it's a gateway to a fulfilling and active lifesty

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,194
• − Management: −$2,194
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $4,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home is in the process of being constructed and requires extensive finishing and installation work to be move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof is not yet installed
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is not yet installed
• Major interior walls — The interior walls are not yet finished
• Major flooring — The interior flooring is not yet installed
• Major bathrooms — The bathrooms are not yet finished
• Major kitchen — The kitchen is not yet finished
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC and mechanical systems are not yet installed
• Major landscaping — The landscaping and curb appeal are not yet completed

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete the construction and finishing of the home — Completing the construction and finishing will make the home move-in ready and ready for occupancy
• Both Install landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Installing HVAC and mechanical systems will ensure the home is functional and ready for occupancy
• Both Install flooring and interior walls — Installing flooring and interior walls will make the home move-in ready and ready for occupancy
• Both Finish bathrooms and kitchen — Finishing the bathrooms and kitchen will make the home move-in ready and ready for occupancy

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof is not yet installed	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding is not yet installed	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior walls are not yet finished	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The interior flooring is not yet installed	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · The bathrooms are not yet finished	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · The kitchen is not yet finished	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The HVAC and mechanical systems are not yet installed	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping and curb appeal are not yet completed	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete the construction and finishing of the home — Completing the construction and finishing will make the home move-in ready and ready for occupancy ↑
• Both Install landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Installing HVAC and mechanical systems will ensure the home is functional and ready for occupancy ↑
• Both Install flooring and interior walls — Installing flooring and interior walls will make the home move-in ready and ready for occupancy ↑
• Both Finish bathrooms and kitchen — Finishing the bathrooms and kitchen will make the home move-in ready and ready for occupancy ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #6050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,986
• Household income: $57,288
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.06%
• Current HPI: 305.6629
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.15%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $199,900 Zillow