162 Ky Rt 993 · Paintsville, KY 41240

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1940 15 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located 7 miles from Paintsville and only . 2 miles off US 23. This 3 bed 1 bath home with a bonus room is cute and cozy, but with the right love and attention it could be so much more! Bonus room could be used as an office. The house has good bones and having had some updates to the major systems - such as a year old roof, a new water heater and newer central heat & air unit it has a lot of potential. The wallpaper upstairs needs removed. There is a cellar behind the house. This property comes with +/- 15 acres. Property has driveway easement shared with close neighbor. Selling as is.

Key facts

• 15 acres
• Bonus room
• New water heater

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• UPDATES TO MAJOR SYSTEMS
• YEAR OLD ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• CELLAR BEHIND THE HOUSE
• 15 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 15 acres; No zoning (listed as None)
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio/porch; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Oven
• Bedrooms:
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Radiant heating
• Interior features: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Oven; Carpet flooring; Hardwood flooring; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Paintsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#117 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W R Castle Memorial Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 401 students, 73% FRL); Johnson County Middle School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 475 students, 61% FRL); Johnson Central High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #200 of 254 statewide, top 79%, 955 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,293 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $28,049
• Equity at exit: $58,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $81,372
• Equity at exit: $96,441

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41240

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $115,000
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $118,000 Active
4. 2026-03-02
   price $118,000
5. 2025-12-16
   listed $125,000 Active
6. 2025-12-15
   status Active
7. 2025-10-31
   status Pending
8. 2025-09-03
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$62/yr (+$5/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$114
• After-tax cash flow: $1,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 2103060
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $34,508
• Composite: 25.49/100
• National rank: #7441
• State rank: #103 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paintsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #5546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,495
• Population (ZIP): 6,495

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,330 people
• By 2030: 21,570 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 19,849 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 18,204 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 14,588 · -34.7%
• By 2100: 11,127 · -50.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.7) · D 14.0% · R 84.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -70.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.7 2020: R+67.1 2016: R+71.0 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Current HPI: 186.4342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $115,000 EKAR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $118,000 EKAR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $118,000 EKAR
• 2025-12-16 Listed $125,000 EKAR
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — EKAR
• 2025-10-31 Pending — EKAR
• 2025-09-03 Listed $125,000 EKAR

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +284.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.