164 Juanita Way · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$294,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $156/sqft · at area comps Est $297k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.6% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $250,185 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,499
• List price: $294,999
• Delta: -0.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,891 (0%)	0mo	$292,999	$155	99
173 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-0%)	2mo	$301,999	$160	97
193 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	1mo	$289,999	$157	93
197 Juanita Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	2mo	$293,999	$159	82
189 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	0mo	$277,999	$167	77
165 Juanita Way	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	2mo	$311,999	$187	76
195 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	3mo	$284,999	$171	75
169 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,162 (+14%)	0mo	$304,999	$141	73
239 Juanita Way	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+7%)	2mo	$328,999	$163	72
245 Juanita Way	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+7%)	3mo	$331,999	$164	72
191 Juanita Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,162 (+14%)	2mo	$319,999	$148	62
241 Juanita Way	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-14%)	2mo	$311,999	$191	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-53,556
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-53,890
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,000 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,617

Max offer price $281,801

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $11	+0% $-91	+5% $-193	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-190	+0% $-91	+5% $8	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $-16	base $-91	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,300	$1.56	52d	1	0.05mi
114 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,000	$1.34	21d	1	0.11mi
123 Aidan Trl Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,295	$1.38	18d	1	0.21mi
243 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$2,300	$1.21	71d	1	0.26mi
247 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	5.0	3.0	2210	$2,500	$1.13	67d	1	0.26mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	53d	1	0.71mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	93d	1	0.72mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	93d	1	0.76mi
409 S Pear St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2326	$2,500	$1.07	53d	1	0.82mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	73d	1	1.06mi
247 Sunday Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,600	$1.90	9d	1	1.07mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	73d	1	1.09mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	46d	1	1.09mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	9d	10	1.40mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	93d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Friendship Oaks
• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $87.50 paid quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450Community amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerCity garbage serviceElectric service by CTECGas service by Centric
• Home design: New construction by LennarCement fiber exteriorSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by LennarNew
• Exterior features: Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathMaster bedroom approx. 15 x 16Bedroom 2 approx. 11 x 11Bedroom 3 approx. 11 x 11Bedroom 4 approx. 11 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroomMaster bath with shower-only (approx. 8 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planTwo living areasBreakfast barGame roomUtility room insideCable TV availableLaundry on main levelWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main levelUtility room inside

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $294,999 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $294,999 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $294,999 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $294,999 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   statusdays on market $294,999 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $294,999 Price Change 100 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $294,999 Price Change 98 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $294,999 Price Change 97 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $294,999 Price Change 95 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $294,999 Price Change 93 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $294,999 Price Change 92 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    pricestatus $294,999 Price Change 91 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $293,999 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $293,999 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $293,999 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    statusdays on market $293,999 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 86 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 85 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 84 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 83 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 82 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 81 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 80 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 79 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $293,999 Price Change 78 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    pricestatus $293,999 Price Change 76 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $292,999 Active 76 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $292,999 Active 75 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $292,999 Active 74 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $292,999 Active 72 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $292,999 Active 71 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $292,999 Active 70 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $292,999 Active 69 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $292,999 Active 68 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $292,999 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    statusdays on market $292,999 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 65 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 63 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 61 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 60 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 57 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $292,999 Price Change 56 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $295,999 Price Change 55 DOM

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

44. 2026-06-15
    pricestatus $295,999 Price Change 54 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $292,999 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    statusdays on market $292,999 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 48 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 47 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 46 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $292,999 Price Change 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready, two-story home features a spacious layout with modern finishes and a clean, well-maintained exterior. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, and smart home features would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fredericksburg El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Fredericksburg Middle C- TX #392/1,662 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Fredericksburg H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 28,213 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Friendship Oaks
• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $87.50 paid quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450Community amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerCity garbage serviceElectric service by CTECGas service by Centric
• Home design: New construction by LennarCement fiber exteriorSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by LennarNew
• Exterior features: Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathMaster bedroom approx. 15 x 16Bedroom 2 approx. 11 x 11Bedroom 3 approx. 11 x 11Bedroom 4 approx. 11 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroomMaster bath with shower-only (approx. 8 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planTwo living areasBreakfast barGame roomUtility room insideCable TV availableLaundry on main levelWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main levelUtility room inside

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $292,999 LERA
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $292,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $295,999 LERA
• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $295,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $292,999 LERA
• 2026-05-31 Listed $292,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $312,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $316,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Listed $319,999 LERA