33 Lake St · New Vineyard, ME 04956

$319,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 2021 0.85 ac lot $152/sqft · 27% below area Est $441k · 27% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an amazing opportunity! This 4 bed 3 bath home offers all of the space you can imagine! With some very nice craftsmanship this place has been almost completely finished to perfection! Located just 30 minutes to Sugarloaf Ski Resort and 25 Minutes to Downtown Farmington the excitement and entertainment await. Whether you are an outdoor enthusiast or just want to sit out on the amazing wrap around decks and look out at the mountains this is place for you! A decent sized back yard and oversized 2 car garage also await whatever plans you decide to bring to make it your own space! Come check it out today!

Key facts

• 0.85 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (52.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (52.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 09 (rural): math 78% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #88 of 112 in ME (top 79%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $151,088 (52.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.63%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 17.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,176
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -26.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-26,224
• Equity at exit: $143,841

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,482
• Equity at exit: $221,676

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04956

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,798/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-1,017

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,798

Max offer price $172,715

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $319,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $349,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    What an amazing opportunity! This 4 bed 3 bath home offers all of the space you can imagine! With some very nice craftsmanship this place has been almost completely finished to perfection! Located just 30 minutes to Sugarloaf Ski Resort and 25 Minutes to Downtown Farmington the excitement and entertainment await. Whether you are an outdoor enthusiast or just want to sit out on the amazing wrap around decks and look out at the mountains this is place for you! A decent sized back yard and oversized 2 car garage also await whatever plans you decide to bring to make it your own space! Come check it out today!

19. 2026-05-13
    price $349,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    What an amazing opportunity! This 4 bed 3 bath home offers all of the space you can imagine! With some very nice craftsmanship this place has been almost completely finished to perfection! Located just 30 minutes to Sugarloaf Ski Resort and 25 Minutes to Downtown Farmington the excitement and entertainment await. Whether you are an outdoor enthusiast or just want to sit out on the amazing wrap around decks and look out at the mountains this is place for you! A decent sized back yard and oversized 2 car garage also await whatever plans you decide to bring to make it your own space! Come check it out today!

20. 2026-03-27
    price $399,000 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    What an amazing opportunity! This 4 bed 3 bath home offers all of the space you can imagine! With some very nice craftsmanship this place has been almost completely finished to perfection! Located just 30 minutes to Sugarloaf Ski Resort and 25 Minutes to Downtown Farmington the excitement and entertainment await. Whether you are an outdoor enthusiast or just want to sit out on the amazing wrap around decks and look out at the mountains this is place for you! A decent sized back yard and oversized 2 car garage also await whatever plans you decide to bring to make it your own space! Come check it out today!

21. 2026-03-27
    listed $399,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    What an amazing opportunity! This 4 bed 3 bath home offers all of the space you can imagine! With some very nice craftsmanship this place has been almost completely finished to perfection! Located just 30 minutes to Sugarloaf Ski Resort and 25 Minutes to Downtown Farmington the excitement and entertainment await. Whether you are an outdoor enthusiast or just want to sit out on the amazing wrap around decks and look out at the mountains this is place for you! A decent sized back yard and oversized 2 car garage also await whatever plans you decide to bring to make it your own space! Come check it out today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,798
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$18,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,415
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 09
• NCES district ID: 2314809
• Math proficiency: 78% ▲ 48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 31.00%
• Median HH income: $40,202
• Composite: 66.71/100
• National rank: #409
• State rank: #88 of 112 in ME

Livability — New Vineyard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 569

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,948 people
• By 2030: 27,889 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,275 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 22,770 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 18,980 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 16,816 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 44.8% · R 53.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+5.5 2012: D+18.5 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $349,900 MREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $349,900 MREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $399,000 MREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $399,000 MREIS