9635 Ebert Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$99,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1993 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Investor Opportunity!! 3/2 mobile home on over an acre of land. Endless possibilities with this home. It just needs some cleaning up and will be the perfect home. Cash or hard money lending

Key facts

• Screened side porch
• Kitchen updates
• Interior renovation

Tags

• SCREENED SIDE PORCH
• ATTACHED STORAGE AREA
• FULL REHAB
• INTERIOR RENOVATION
• KITCHEN UPDATES
• BATH UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Additional parking type: Other
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Asphalt road access; Shed(s) on the property; Workshop on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances specified for the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 4.0% in Flagler Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($692 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $100k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.08%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,968
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4120 Helena St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	16mo	$210,000	$182	57
9870 Crotty Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+4%)	14mo	$219,900	$192	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $96,220
• Equity at exit: $90,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.95×
• Total profit: $250,621
• Equity at exit: $194,259

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,771/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $712	-5% $683	+0% $655	+5% $627	+10% $598
Rent	-10% $518	-5% $587	+0% $655	+5% $724	+10% $792
Rate	-1.0pp $705	-0.5pp $681	base $655	+0.5pp $629	+1.0pp $603

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $99,990 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,990 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,990 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $99,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,771 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,771 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,771
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,604
• After-tax cash flow: $6,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $99,990 realMLS
• 2021-06-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2021-06-21 Price Changed $93,000 realMLS
• 2021-06-19 Price Changed $95,000 realMLS
• 2021-06-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2021-06-01 Price Changed $100,000 realMLS
• 2021-05-24 Price Changed $103,500 realMLS
• 2021-05-20 Price Changed $106,500 realMLS
• 2021-05-15 Price Changed $108,000 realMLS
• 2021-05-14 Price Changed $109,000 realMLS
• 2021-05-13 Price Changed $113,500 realMLS
• 2021-05-03 Listed $115,000 realMLS
• 2014-07-12 Sold (MLS) $59,000 realMLS
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) $59,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2013-05-24 Listed $59,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2013-05-24 Listed $59,900 realMLS
• 2003-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 2000-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,771 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.