639 S Old Orchard Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1948 0.53 ac lot $94/sqft · 31% below area Est $173k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-upper with upside in Springfield! 3 bed, 1 bath with newer roof and central heat already in place. Property needs full cosmetic renovation but has strong potential for resale or rental. Good lot with a nice backyard. Priced to reflect condition--don't miss this value-add opportunity!

Key facts

• Central heat
• Newer roof
• 0.53 acre lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• CENTRAL HEAT
• FULL COSMETIC RENOVATION
• STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RESALE
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 512 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,483
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -31.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
639 S Old Orchard Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,272 (0%)	1mo	$119,000	$94	100
2918 E Monroe Ter	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,229 (-3%)	2mo	$209,000	$170	79
514 S Prince Ln	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,316 (+4%)	2mo	$220,000	$167	76
2626 E Elm St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-2%)	4mo	$199,500	$160	74
620 S Belcrest Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-9%)	2mo	$94,900	$82	69
510 S Burton Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	3mo	$199,900	$174	68
217 N Ken Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,188 (-7%)	2mo	$200,000	$168	62
1033 S Paula Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,309 (+3%)	1mo	$189,500	$145	61
209 S Burton Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (-8%)	2mo	$129,000	$110	58
2965 E Belmont St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+9%)	3mo	$269,900	$195	58
2212 E Cherry St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-6%)	3mo	$181,000	$151	53
1027 S Karla Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+13%)	1mo	$257,900	$179	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,671
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $47,052
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $998/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3080 E Cherry St Unit F104-ADA Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,500	$1.46	23d	1	0.42mi
3080 E Cherry St Unit H104-ADA Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,565	$1.52	43d	1	0.42mi
531 N Oak Grove Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	1184	$925	$0.78	43d	1	0.73mi
2154 E Cairo St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	43d	1	0.79mi
3501 E Lombard St Springfield, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,065	$1.33	43d	1	0.98mi
3440 E Lombard St Unit 129 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	900	$875	$0.97	23d	1	0.99mi
3440 E Lombard St Unit 110 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	900	$875	$0.97	43d	1	0.99mi
2765 E Verona St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,600	$1.29	43d	1	1.03mi
2641 E Verona St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	23d	1	1.05mi
1225 S Ingram Mill Rd Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$2,345	$2.04	13d	4	1.08mi
2804 E Linwood St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	13d	1	1.20mi
2146 E Bennett St Unit 0 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1009	$895	$0.89	43d	1	1.20mi
3700 E Cherry St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	13d	1	1.24mi
1528 S Catalina Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,440	$1.09	43d	1	1.27mi
726 S Kentwood Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1116	$1,295	$1.16	13d	1	1.27mi
2831 E University St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	23d	1	1.35mi
2831 E University St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	13d	1	1.35mi
1603 S Saint Charles Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,695	$1.17	43d	1	1.39mi
2149 E Sunshine St Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	671	$1,453	$2.17	13d	20	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Fixer-upper with upside in Springfield! 3 bed, 1 bath with newer roof and central heat already in place. Property needs full cosmetic renovation but has strong potential for resale or rental. Good lot with a nice backyard. Priced to reflect condition--don't miss this value-add opportunity!

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $119,000 Active 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Fixer-upper with upside in Springfield! 3 bed, 1 bath with newer roof and central heat already in place. Property needs full cosmetic renovation but has strong potential for resale or rental. Good lot with a nice backyard. Priced to reflect condition--don't miss this value-add opportunity!

3. 2012-08-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $998 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$998
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $2,608
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$626
• After-tax cash flow: $3,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-20 Listed $119,000 SOMO
• 2012-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $998 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.