160 Northcrest Acres · Avon, PA 17046

$89,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and inviting, this 3-bedroom, 2 full bathroom double-wide offers 1,404 square feet of finished living space with an open floorplan concept and thoughtful updates throughout. Step inside to a bright living room featuring wood flooring and a cathedral ceiling that creates an airy, welcoming feel. The kitchen offers a breakfast bar and flows nicely into the dining area, making everyday living and entertaining easy. The large primary bedroom suite includes a walk-in closet and an updated private full bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second updated full bath provide flexibility for guests, hobbies, or home office needs. Enjoy your morning coffee in the front sunroom patio o

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Walk-in closet
• Cathedral ceiling

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN CONCEPT
• WOOD FLOORING
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED PRIVATE FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rented lot
• Financial info: Ownership interest: Ground rent
• HOA & community: Ground rent exists; $495 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway with 4 driveway spaces (4 total garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Shared septic; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Estimated year built; Not in a federal flood zone; Private road
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composite and rubber roof; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade structure
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Enclosed outdoor living area; Patio(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric oven/range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central A/C; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Dining area; Exterior lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#483 in PA, #4,457 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cornwall-Lebanon SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #219 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Crest Hs (math 77% / reading 34%, grade C, #93 of 437 statewide, top 22%, 1,633 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Lebanon County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lebanon County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.39%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $31,527
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $108,945
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17046

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $916/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Robert's Cir Lebanon, PA	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,625	$1.23	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $89,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 27.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$916
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $6,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,509
• After-tax cash flow: $5,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall-Lebanon SD
• NCES district ID: 4206840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $62,483
• Composite: 41.0/100
• National rank: #3589
• State rank: #219 of 539 in PA

Livability — Avon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #4457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lebanon County · 95,836 people
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,835
• Household income: $62,221
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 905.0

Population outlook (Lebanon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,806 people
• By 2030: 147,534 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 152,952 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 159,406 · +10.1%
• By 2075: 181,736 · +25.5%
• By 2100: 198,402 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 20% Dominican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Lebanon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.6% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.36%
• Current HPI: 217.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.36%
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+347.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $89,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-01-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-01-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-11 Listed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-11 Listed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $916 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.