380 Valley Ridge Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$199,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.28 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lotta Bang for Your Buck! 5 bedrooms or an option for an office space plus 3 full baths and 2 living areas. What a great find this one is. Beautiful ranch style home, as you enter there is a large living area with paneled accent wall, dining room with patio door leading to the rear deck and stunning eat in island kitchen, complete with all new stainless appliances including dishwasher, refrigerator and range, plus a cute little coffee bar just waiting for you to make it your own. This move in ready spacious home has a private primary suite complete with dual vanities, large shower and awesome walk in closet. The other end of the house includes a den, gameroom or family room, you choose, in

Key facts

• Patio door
• Large living area
• Dining room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• PANELED ACCENT WALL
• DINING ROOM
• PATIO DOOR
• REAR DECK
• EAT IN ISLAND KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Runaway Bay; County: Wise; Directions available
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, Owner financing, USDA and VA loans; Property listed as Real Estate Owned
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage or covered/carport spaces listed)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; Aerobic septic; All-weather road
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Attached property; One story; 2024 construction
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Cleared lot with few trees; Interior lot; Irregular-shaped lot; Large grassy backyard; Easements for utilities; All-weather road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in area; Water line to refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, dual sinks and walk-in closet; Several bedrooms with ensuite baths and split-bedroom layout
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Central electric heating
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Paneling; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window coverings; Two living areas; One dining area; 10 total rooms; One-level home
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($484/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.8% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bridgeport El (523 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,213 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,950
• Equity at exit: $49,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,372
• Equity at exit: $53,973

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $97	+0% $40	+5% $-16	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-21	+0% $40	+5% $102	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $91	base $40	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-16
   price $199,900
4. 2026-04-03
   price $209,900
5. 2026-03-20
   listed $219,900 Active
6. 2025-10-23
   price $220,000
7. 2025-10-02
   price $234,500
8. 2025-09-11
   listed $235,000 Active
9. 2025-01-23
   soldstatus
10. 2000-08-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,912/yr (+$243/mo · 390.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,012
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$723
• After-tax cash flow: $1,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready ranch-style home offers a spacious layout with new appliances and flooring, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both install outdoor lighting — improves safety and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both install outdoor lighting — improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $209,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $234,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · -13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.