31404 Pratola Serra Cir · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$206,390

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $183/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

The Whitetail Floor Plan - The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by KRJ Management, Inc.; Playground and park in the community; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (16 x 12); Three additional bedrooms on second level (12 x 12, 12 x 12, 12 x 10); One bedroom/dining room/family room on first level as listed
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $206,390 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $249,626.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $206k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $206,390

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,626
• List price: $206,390
• Delta: -17.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31413 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$270,990	$133	97
31424 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$280,990	$138	96
906 Coperchiata Cir	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$271,990	$133	93
918 Lago Laceno Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$272,990	$134	90
908 Lago Laceno Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$270,990	$133	89
911 Capracotta Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+2%)	3mo	$329,990	$158	87
31422 Casacalenda Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$276,990	$136	87
31517 Pianella Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-4%)	2mo	$288,990	$147	67
912 Capracotta Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-14%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	62
31507 San Floro Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-12%)	1mo	$304,990	$170	54
31504 Pianella Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	2mo	$271,990	$155	50
31515 Pianella Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	3mo	$277,990	$158	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,155
• Equity at exit: $37,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,243
• Equity at exit: $21,583

Cash invested: $69,895 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,744/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,415

Max offer price $220,433

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-115	+0% $-202	+5% $-288	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-287	+0% $-202	+5% $-116	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-138	base $-202	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,407
• Closing costs: $7,489
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   price $206,390 415-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   price $206,390 598-char remark
3. 2026-05-08
   price $198,390 415-char remark
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $198,390 Active 598-char remark
5. 2026-05-05
   price $209,940 415-char remark
6. 2026-05-04
   listed $221,990 Active 415-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,983
• − Property taxes: −$3,744
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$7,262
• Taxable loss: −$6,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $206,390 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $198,390 HARMLS