407 N 19th St · Lamesa, TX 79331

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1953 7,841 sqft lot $73/sqft · 107% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Lamesa offers generous living space and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room to relax and unwind. A comfortable layout makes this property easy to enjoy and ready to fit your lifestyle.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport; On-street parking
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built area listed (1,366 above-grade finished)
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Paved road access; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#445 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Lamesa ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #755 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.63%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,208
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: 107.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,652
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $39,922
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79331

• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,718/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
803 N 18th St Lamesa, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,600	$1.04	43d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $100,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-05-01
   listed $100,000 Active 244-char remark
10. 2023-03-30
    soldstatus
11. 2007-07-31
    soldstatus
12. 1995-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,718 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,718 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,718
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$816
• After-tax cash flow: $3,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamesa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826610
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,346
• Composite: 18.85/100
• National rank: #8862
• State rank: #755 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lamesa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #9067

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lamesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,751

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,411 people
• By 2030: 12,268 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 12,260 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 12,117 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 11,504 · -7.3%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 34% Two or more races 24% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Polish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.0% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+50.6 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.06%
• Current HPI: 135.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $100,000 LARMLS
• 2023-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,718 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.