2416 Cottonwood St · Mission, TX 78574

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,135 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1986 9,168 sqft lot $107/sqft · 23% below area Est $297k · 23% under ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2416 Cottonwood St in Mission, TX, located in the desirable Sharyland ISD! This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features vaulted ceilings with wood beam accents and updated kitchen and bathrooms Enjoy a covered patio with pergola—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and more, this home offers comfort, space, and a great location all in one.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• WOOD BEAM ACCENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Escrow: 2000
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Other garage or carport (no listed covered or garage spaces)
• Utilities: City sewer; Paved road access; Electric water heater
• Home design: Brick and other construction
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Mature trees; Sprinkler system; Gazebo; Covered patio; Deck / balcony / porch; Patio slab; Curb and gutters; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Smooth electric cooktop; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Attic fans
• Interior features: Granite countertops; Ceiling fans; Double pane windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Donna Wernecke El (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 697 students, 71% FRL); Sharyland North J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 806 students, 74% FRL); Sharyland H S (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,546 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,294/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 803% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.30%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,485
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -23.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5101 Pecan Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,042 (-4%)	3mo	$439,000	$215	72
2413 Summer Breeze Ave	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,964 (-8%)	1mo	$295,000	$150	70
2215 Grapefruit Ave	0.31mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,108 (-1%)	6mo	$260,000	$123	68
5009 Pecan Ave	0.44mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,014 (-6%)	8mo	$508,000	$252	52
2511 Wernecke Ave	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (+12%)	2mo	$402,900	$168	51
2426 Norma Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,278 (+7%)	9mo	$349,900	$154	50
2104 Dove St	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,864 (-13%)	1mo	$279,600	$150	48
2107 E 27th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,835 (-14%)	8mo	$289,000	$157	46
2205 Village Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,224 (+4%)	7mo	$390,000	$175	46
1304 N 49th St	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,308 (+8%)	6mo	$425,000	$184	40
2200 E 19th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,829 (-14%)	9mo	$235,000	$128	36
4805 W Tamarack Ave	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,867 (-13%)	10mo	$329,000	$176	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,184
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,932
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,713/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,138

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $188	+0% $123	+5% $58	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $32	+0% $123	+5% $213	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $181	base $123	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2715 Mimosa St #12 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,350	$0.96	14d	1	0.30mi
2505 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.5	1550	$2,300	$1.48	44d	1	0.31mi
2401 E 27th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,850	$1.07	24d	1	0.33mi
2614 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,000	$2.01	24d	1	0.33mi
2510 May Ave Mission, TX	4.0	4.0	2437	$2,500	$1.03	24d	1	0.39mi
2200 E 27th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.5	2351	$2,600	$1.11	44d	1	0.40mi
5125 Sequoia Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,600	$1.37	44d	1	0.44mi
2609 May Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	0.48mi
2111 E 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	2239	$2,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.49mi
5008 W Sycamore Ave McAllen, TX	4.0	3.5	2488	$2,800	$1.13	14d	1	0.52mi
2212 Lilly Cove Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	1950	$1,750	$0.90	44d	1	0.53mi
2201 E 21st St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1529	$1,850	$1.21	14d	1	0.56mi
2203 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.66mi
2200 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$1,950	$1.07	44d	1	0.68mi
2514 Yarrow St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	24d	1	0.74mi
2516 Wisteria Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,800	$1.36	14d	1	0.79mi
4505 Quince Ave McAllen, TX	4.0	3.5	2267	$2,300	$1.01	19d	1	0.80mi
1403 N Shary Rd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	2670	$2,000	$0.75	44d	1	0.82mi
1013 N 47th St McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1663	$1,650	$0.99	21d	1	0.87mi
2304 N 45th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$2,500	$1.50	19d	1	0.89mi
4608 W Ivy Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,900	$1.15	14d	1	0.90mi
736 N 46th St McAllen, TX	4.0	3.5	2749	$2,500	$0.91	19d	1	0.97mi
1801 Crown Pointe Blvd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,650	$1.03	14d	1	1.00mi
4704 Date Palm Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	2120	$2,200	$1.04	24d	1	1.07mi
2510 E U.S. Business 83 Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	1.5	2176	$800	$0.37	44d	1	1.13mi
1604 Toni Ln Mission, TX	2.0	2.5	2848	$1,800	$0.63	14d	1	1.15mi
1606 Terrace Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2127	$2,600	$1.22	14d	1	1.18mi
2436 E 8th Ave Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	1987	$2,700	$1.36	45d	1	1.21mi
2435 E 7th Ave Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	2366	$2,300	$0.97	45d	1	1.23mi
2303 Nappa Valley Dr Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	2495	$2,800	$1.12	44d	1	1.25mi
1511 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	2.5	2741	$2,400	$0.88	44d	1	1.25mi
2319 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1583	$1,900	$1.20	44d	1	1.31mi
2225 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,100	$1.14	21d	1	1.31mi
2313 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	44d	1	1.31mi
1412 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,300	$1.11	24d	1	1.34mi
3800 Westway Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,950	$1.35	14d	1	1.45mi
3800 Westway Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,775	$1.23	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $229,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-04-24
   listed $235,000 Active 412-char remark
5. 2026-03-04
   price $229,999
6. 2025-12-05
   price $244,900
7. 2025-11-08
   price $259,900
8. 2025-11-08
   price $259,999
9. 2025-09-26
   listed $268,000 Active
10. 2023-03-16
    soldstatus
11. 2013-12-26
    soldstatus
12. 1991-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,713 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,713 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,713
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$535
• After-tax cash flow: $2,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $229,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $235,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $229,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $244,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $259,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $259,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $268,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-12-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,713 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.