12825 Lime Stone Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$204,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · Land · 156 Days on market

Built 2024 $143/sqft · at area comps Est $212k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into your dream home with 1,434 sq.ft. of beautifully designed living space. This stunning home features four-sided brick offering both durability and timeless curb appeal, fully sodded backyard, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a perfect space for both relaxation and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with a modern design backsplash, sleek stainless steel appliances, granite stone countertops & luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, dining & living areas. The home boasts neutral colors throughout, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front & rear porch, perfect for family gatherings or quiet evenings. Built by Adams Homes, where quality craftsmanship meets over 30 years of trusted experience. Enjoy affordable pricing and a simplified buying process, all designed to deliver lasting value in every home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Four-sided brick
• Garage

Tags

• FOUR-SIDED BRICK
• FULLY SODDED BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN DESIGN BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE STONE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($657/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $178,062 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,985
• List price: $204,400
• Delta: -3.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-34,862
• Equity at exit: $30,477

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-46,075
• Equity at exit: $17,673

Cash invested: $57,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,072
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,786/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $204,400

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $113	+0% $55	+5% $-3	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $-16	+0% $55	+5% $125	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $107	base $55	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,100
• Closing costs: $6,132
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1516 Sunset Ridge Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,600	$1.26	45d	1	0.66mi
10828 Champion Forest Loop Unit 110124 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,293	$0.99	45d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $204,400 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   Step into your dream home with 1,434 sq.ft. of beautifully designed living space. This stunning home features four-sided brick offering both durability and timeless curb appeal, fully sodded backyard, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a perfect space for both relaxation and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with a modern design backsplash, sleek stainless steel appliances, granite stone countertops & luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, dining & living areas. The home boasts neutral colors throughout, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front & rear porch, perfect for family gatherings or quiet evenings. Built by Adams Homes, where quality craftsmanship meets over 30 years of trusted experience. Enjoy affordable pricing and a simplified buying process, all designed to deliver lasting value in every home.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $229,400 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   Step into your dream home with 1,434 sq.ft. of beautifully designed living space. This stunning home features four-sided brick offering both durability and timeless curb appeal, fully sodded backyard, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a perfect space for both relaxation and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with a modern design backsplash, sleek stainless steel appliances, granite stone countertops & luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, dining & living areas. The home boasts neutral colors throughout, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front & rear porch, perfect for family gatherings or quiet evenings. Built by Adams Homes, where quality craftsmanship meets over 30 years of trusted experience. Enjoy affordable pricing and a simplified buying process, all designed to deliver lasting value in every home.

3. 2026-01-02
   status Active 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   Step into your dream home with 1,434 sq.ft. of beautifully designed living space. This stunning home features four-sided brick offering both durability and timeless curb appeal, fully sodded backyard, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a perfect space for both relaxation and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with a modern design backsplash, sleek stainless steel appliances, granite stone countertops & luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, dining & living areas. The home boasts neutral colors throughout, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front & rear porch, perfect for family gatherings or quiet evenings. Built by Adams Homes, where quality craftsmanship meets over 30 years of trusted experience. Enjoy affordable pricing and a simplified buying process, all designed to deliver lasting value in every home.

4. 2025-12-28
   status Pending 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   Step into your dream home with 1,434 sq.ft. of beautifully designed living space. This stunning home features four-sided brick offering both durability and timeless curb appeal, fully sodded backyard, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a perfect space for both relaxation and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with a modern design backsplash, sleek stainless steel appliances, granite stone countertops & luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, dining & living areas. The home boasts neutral colors throughout, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front & rear porch, perfect for family gatherings or quiet evenings. Built by Adams Homes, where quality craftsmanship meets over 30 years of trusted experience. Enjoy affordable pricing and a simplified buying process, all designed to deliver lasting value in every home.

5. 2025-12-12
   listed $224,400 Active 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   Step into your dream home with 1,434 sq.ft. of beautifully designed living space. This stunning home features four-sided brick offering both durability and timeless curb appeal, fully sodded backyard, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a perfect space for both relaxation and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with a modern design backsplash, sleek stainless steel appliances, granite stone countertops & luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, dining & living areas. The home boasts neutral colors throughout, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front & rear porch, perfect for family gatherings or quiet evenings. Built by Adams Homes, where quality craftsmanship meets over 30 years of trusted experience. Enjoy affordable pricing and a simplified buying process, all designed to deliver lasting value in every home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,741 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,954/yr (+$163/mo · 109.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,450
• − Property taxes: −$1,786
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,946
• Taxable loss: −$2,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$674
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $204,400 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $229,400 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $224,400 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,786 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.