8 Brush Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$589,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1974 10,019 sqft lot Est $627k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity Large House With Full Basement And 1 Car Garage, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• Brand new plumbing
• Meticulously rebuilt
• Brand new siding

Tags

• METICULOUSLY REBUILT
• BRAND NEW PLUMBING
• BRAND NEW ELECTRICAL
• BRAND NEW HVAC
• BRAND NEW SIDING
• BRAND NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Finished partial basement; Scuttle attic; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $590k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-734 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $409k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $63k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$101k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $590k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $408,896 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $626,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
218 Bayview Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-1%)	1mo	$515,000	$281	87
112 Chanel Dr E	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,773 (-4%)	2mo	$670,000	$378	66
71 Palmetto Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,800 (-3%)	2mo	$625,000	$347	62
196 Neighborhood Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-8%)	2mo	$575,000	$338	60
94 Arpage Dr E	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,983 (+7%)	7mo	$550,000	$277	56
43 Chanel Dr E	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,779 (-4%)	5mo	$665,000	$374	55
31 Harrison Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,888 (+2%)	5mo	$640,000	$339	51
178 Magnolia Dr	0.61mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,925 (+4%)	7mo	$565,000	$294	50
19 Birchwood Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-10%)	3mo	$530,000	$316	50
30 Johns Neck Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,100 (+13%)	5mo	$685,000	$326	48
49 Barclay Rd	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,591 (-14%)	1mo	$630,000	$396	48
52 Manhasset Dr	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,618 (-13%)	3mo	$456,000	$282	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $274,591
• Equity at exit: $531,518

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $845,358
• Equity at exit: $1,146,238

Cash invested: $165,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,094
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,490/yr
• Insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$859
• Net cashflow: $-734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,018

Max offer price $460,387

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-567	+0% $-734	+5% $-901	+10% $-1,068
Rent	-10% $-1,057	-5% $-895	+0% $-734	+5% $-572	+10% $-411
Rate	-1.0pp $-437	-0.5pp $-584	base $-734	+0.5pp $-887	+1.0pp $-1,042

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,500
• Closing costs: $17,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	0d	1	0.19mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	0.46mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	4d	1	0.79mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	45d	1	0.98mi
126 Trafalgar Dr Shirley, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$4,500	$2.14	0d	1	1.11mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	0d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $589,999 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $589,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $589,999 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $589,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $589,999 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $589,999 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $589,999 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $589,999 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $589,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,490 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,730 · $728/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,241/yr (+$103/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,049
• − Property taxes: −$7,490
• − Insurance: −$2,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,925
• − Management: −$3,925
• − Depreciation: −$17,164
• Taxable loss: −$19,436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,665
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+436.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $589,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-17 Sold (MLS) $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MLSLI
• 2016-11-03 Pending — MLSLI
• 2016-09-23 Listed $129,999 MLSLI
• 2016-09-23 Listed $129,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-25 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-04 Price Changed $129,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-25 Price Changed $139,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-24 Listed $149,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $157,500 Public Records
• 1999-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,490 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.