2163 Middlebury Dr SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$399,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2024 6,970 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SHORT SALE. Welcome to this inviting residence in the heart of Palm Bay, offering a comfortable blend of functionality and Florida lifestyle living. Situated in a quiet residential neighborhood, this home provides a relaxed setting with convenient access to nearby schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways for easy commuting throughout Brevard County. Inside, the layout is designed for everyday ease, featuring bright, open living spaces with natural light and a practical flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas--ideal for both entertaining and daily living. Bedrooms are well-proportioned, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office setup. The exterior provides a w

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• QUIET RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO DINING
• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING SPACES
• WELCOMING CURB APPEAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,360 (value provided by listing); Lot size approximately 0.16 acres
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association (Courtyards at Waterstone HOA); Community amenities include clubhouse and playground; Monthly association fee of $55

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Few trees on the lot; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (no unit-supplied furniture)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-849 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (37.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,050 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.12%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $164,993
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $532,041
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,938/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,555

Max offer price $249,044

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1884 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.25mi
1566 Criswell Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.28mi
3517 Rixford Way SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2562	$2,800	$1.09	23d	1	0.28mi
1843 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	0.29mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	13d	1	0.35mi
1394 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	19d	1	0.39mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	19d	1	0.53mi
1783 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,100	$0.95	23d	1	0.53mi
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	13d	1	0.55mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	14d	1	0.71mi
2073 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,133	$1.17	23d	1	0.72mi
2183 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	0.81mi
1046 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.5	2405	$3,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.83mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	14d	1	0.89mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	23d	1	1.20mi
3004 Suntan Ct SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2388	$2,900	$1.21	23d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $399,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $450,000 Active
16. 2024-03-26
    soldstatus $434,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,938 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,938 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,938
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$17,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,211
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $450,000 SCMLS
• 2024-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $434,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+186.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,938 · +505.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.