826 Holly Dr · La Plata, MD 20646

$299,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,526 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 5,944 sqft lot $197/sqft · 10% above area Est $339k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

Key facts

• Built 1980
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable TV available
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Three levels; Walkout-level basement; Not in a federal flood zone
• Construction: Composite roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Double-pane windows with screens; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Sidewalks; Rear fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven/range; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Laminate plank flooring; Luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air conditioning; Electric heating and hot water
• Interior features: Stall shower and tub/shower combination; Breakfast area; Combination dining and living area; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit (laundry in basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-683/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in La Plata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#132 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $300k implies a 314% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,144 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,853
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -11.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 Cedar Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-3%)	14mo	$330,000	$223	78
235 Heather Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,524 (-0%)	10mo	$340,000	$223	63
829 Laurel Ln	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,724 (+13%)	22mo	$305,000	$177	57
837 Laurel Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,724 (+13%)	18mo	$285,000	$165	57
100 Edelen Station Pl #204	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (-1%)	9mo	$345,000	$228	54
221 Heather Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,524 (-0%)	23mo	$339,000	$222	52
112 Huckleberry Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,692 (+11%)	2mo	$375,000	$222	50
305 Centennial St Unit 207 E	0.50mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,466 (-4%)	15mo	$295,000	$201	49
200 Edelen Station Pl #205	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-0%)	21mo	$340,000	$223	46
201 Heather Ct	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	6mo	$353,000	$260	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-52,237
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,221
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20646

• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,456/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,513

Max offer price $289,849

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
219 Heather Ct La Plata, MD	2.0	2.5	1650	$2,400	$1.45	43d	1	0.54mi
249 Heather Ct La Plata, MD	2.0	2.5	1564	$2,400	$1.53	43d	1	0.57mi
303 Edelen Station Pl La Plata, MD	4.0	3.5	2040	$2,795	$1.37	20d	1	0.65mi
201 Carol's Pl La Plata, MD	2.0	2.0	1229	$1,925	$1.57	3d	1	0.76mi
327 Saint Marys Ave Unit 7K La Plata, MD	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,000	$1.61	43d	1	0.81mi
103 Hibiscus Ct La Plata, MD	2.0	2.5	1368	$2,100	$1.54	24d	1	0.82mi
9642 Charles St La Plata, MD	3.0	1.0	1904	$2,400	$1.26	43d	1	0.82mi
14 Chesapeake St La Plata, MD	3.0	2.5	1732	$3,000	$1.73	43d	1	1.02mi
128 Wood Duck Cir La Plata, MD	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,350	$1.40	3d	1	1.07mi
1200 E Patuxent Dr La Plata, MD	3.0	2.0	1962	$3,500	$1.78	43d	1	1.17mi
124 Madison St La Plata, MD	2.0	2.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical $299,900
2. 2015-03-11
   historical 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

3. 2015-03-09
   soldstatus $72,404 Sold 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

4. 2015-03-09
   soldstatus $72,404

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

5. 2014-11-16
   historical

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

6. 2014-09-17
   status Contract 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

7. 2014-07-28
   listed $77,000 Active 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

8. 2014-07-28
   listed $77,000

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Time Limit Bid Property. REO/Bank Owned. Property sold As-Is w/ o repair, warranty or Seller Disclosure. The Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility & make no guarantees, warranties, or representations as to the availability or accuracy of info herein. Seller will accept cash or conventional offers only.

9. 2004-12-29
   soldstatus $179,000
10. 2004-12-17
    soldstatus $179,000
11. 2004-11-23
    historical
12. 2004-11-05
    listed $179,000
13. 2002-03-05
    soldstatus $94,000
14. 2002-02-28
    soldstatus $93,900
15. 2002-01-27
    historical
16. 2002-01-07
    listed $93,900
17. 1986-11-12
    soldstatus $61,500
18. 1986-02-26
    soldstatus $62,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,456 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,456 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,456
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,409
• After-tax cash flow: $726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — La Plata

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #5547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Plata, MD
• Population (ZIP): 21,601

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 24% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.48%
• Current HPI: 238.0634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+377.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-03-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-03-09 Sold (MLS) $72,404 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-03-09 Sold (MLS) $72,404 MRIS
• 2014-11-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-09-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-07-28 Listed $77,000 MRIS
• 2014-07-28 Listed $77,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-17 Sold (MLS) $179,000 MRIS
• 2004-11-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-11-05 Listed $179,000 MRIS
• 2002-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-28 Sold (MLS) $93,900 MRIS
• 2002-01-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-01-07 Listed $93,900 MRIS
• 1986-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 1986-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $62,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,456 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.