12 Magnolia Dr · Mary Esther, FL 32569

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1957 10,454 sqft lot $172/sqft · 29% below area Est $280k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special - Tenant in Place - Assignment Opportunity!. Solid opportunity in Mary Esther! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,165 square feet and is in livable, original condition, making it a great candidate for a light renovation or rental hold. Major systems have already been addressed; Roof replaced in 2018 and HVAC updated in 2022. This home is being offered AS IS and presents strong upside potential with cosmetic updates. Ideal for investors looking for a fix-and-flip, buy-and-hold, or portfolio addition in a steadily growing area. Property is offered for assignment of contract. Don't miss this value-add opportunity!

Key facts

• Hvac updated
• Light renovation
• Roof replaced

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• HVAC UPDATED
• LIGHT RENOVATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Ranch-style single-story home; Entry level: First floor; Zoned for single-family residence
• Construction: Brick construction; Composite shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1957
• Exterior features: Lot about 0.24 acre (approx. 102 x 102); Subdivision: ROSEWOOD HOMES; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Central air conditioning

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $200,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$279,949) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.8% in Mary Esther — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#2 in FL, #137 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mary Esther Elementary School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 441 students, 70% FRL); Fort Walton Beach High School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,620 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 36% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,740 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,949
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -28.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 Bryn Mawr Blvd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+3%)	1mo	$315,000	$263	71
715 Crestwood St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-4%)	9mo	$285,000	$254	69
345 Avon Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,235 (+6%)	6mo	$290,000	$235	66
129 Bryn Mawr Blvd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-14%)	10mo	$170,000	$170	66
607 Hollywood Blvd E	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-14%)	3mo	$264,000	$264	65
431 Stonehenge Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+3%)	7mo	$291,000	$243	62
640 Cornwall Ter	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,102 (-5%)	0mo	$150,000	$136	62
451 Stonehenge Dr Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (+4%)	8mo	$300,000	$248	59
641 Cornwall Ter	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+3%)	3mo	$290,000	$242	58
408 NW Adam St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,122 (-4%)	3mo	$281,000	$250	57
650 Bryn Mawr Blvd	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (+6%)	9mo	$269,000	$217	51
387 NW Canterbury Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+11%)	1mo	$384,900	$297	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,172
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,251
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,357/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $243	+0% $186	+5% $130	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $110	+0% $186	+5% $262	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $237	base $186	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 Sea Rover Ln NW Unit F Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,600	$1.55	15d	1	0.48mi
413 Sea Rover Ln NW Unit F Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,600	$1.55	22d	1	0.48mi
17 Cape Dr NW Unit B Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,995	$1.36	15d	1	0.66mi
28 E Lane Dr Mary Esther, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,500	$1.32	45d	1	0.69mi
27 E Lane Dr Mary Esther, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,695	$1.49	15d	1	0.69mi
200 Page Bacon Rd Mary Esther, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,588	$2.51	15d	18	0.72mi
358 Coral Dr SW Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	45d	1	0.82mi
44 Wright Pkwy NW Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	22d	1	0.87mi
209 W Miracle Strip Pkwy Unit A203 Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	22d	1	1.01mi
280 Anderson Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,695	$1.59	45d	1	1.08mi
1851 Stella Ln Unit 5-538 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	15d	1	1.28mi
1855 Stella Ln Unit 6-617 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	15d	1	1.28mi
1850 Stella Ln Unit 4-411 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	15d	1	1.28mi
1850 Stella Ln Unit 4-417 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	45d	1	1.28mi
405 Marshall Ct Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	1.30mi
1861 Stella Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	15d	5	1.30mi
402 Marshall Ct NW #6 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	22d	1	1.33mi
305 Leah Miller Dr NW Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1334	$2,000	$1.50	22d	1	1.35mi
909 Santa Rosa Blvd #328 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,600	$2.51	45d	1	1.37mi
218 Rose Marie Ln SW Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1208	$1,750	$1.45	22d	1	1.39mi
940 Santa Rosa Blvd Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	22d	4	1.41mi
646 Virginia Oak Ct Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1278	$1,545	$1.21	15d	1	1.41mi
645 Virginia Oak Ct Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1254	$1,900	$1.52	15d	1	1.44mi
1850 Norwood Ct Unit 2 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	22d	1	1.46mi
1851 Norwood Ct Unit 4 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	22d	1	1.48mi
1855 Norwood Ct Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	45d	1	1.49mi
1855 Norwood Ct #5 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,357 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,357 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,357
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$252
• After-tax cash flow: $2,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mary Esther

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #137

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mary Esther, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 12,063
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $200,000 ECAR

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,357 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.