45 Jones Rd · Silkworth, PA 18621

$20,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 867 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1964 10,454 sqft lot $24/sqft · 43% below area Est $37k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Auction now active! Potential abound! Location, location, location! Situated just a street over from Lake Silkworth this property is waiting for you to give it the TLC to shine! Mobile home on a foundation set on a 0.24 acre lot. Detached garage! Priced to sell!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $21k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $21k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,307 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake-Lehman SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #176 of 539 in PA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $144 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $202 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.

Recommended offer $20,488 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 159.54%
• DSCR: 8.10
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,523
• List price: $20,800
• Delta: -43.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Lake Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	952 (+10%)	6mo	$50,000	$53	62
46 Country Crest Ln	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	744 (-14%)	8mo	$25,000	$34	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $47,829
• Equity at exit: $5,049

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.39×
• Total profit: $107,085
• Equity at exit: $5,326

Cash invested: $5,824 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18621

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$109
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $251

Max offer price $20,800

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,200
• Closing costs: $624
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Auction now active! Potential abound! Location, location, location! Situated just a street over from Lake Silkworth this property is waiting for you to give it the TLC to shine! Mobile home on a foundation set on a 0.24 acre lot. Detached garage! Priced to sell!

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $20,800 Active 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Auction now active! Potential abound! Location, location, location! Situated just a street over from Lake Silkworth this property is waiting for you to give it the TLC to shine! Mobile home on a foundation set on a 0.24 acre lot. Detached garage! Priced to sell!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,165
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$104
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$605
• Taxable income: $9,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,297
• After-tax cash flow: $6,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake-Lehman SD
• NCES district ID: 4213020
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,161
• Composite: 42.85/100
• National rank: #3129
• State rank: #176 of 539 in PA

Livability — Silkworth

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1307
• US rank: #16082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silkworth, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,903

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Current HPI: 282.6249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $20,800 LCAR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $969 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.