568 S Recreation Ave · Fresno, CA 93702

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1924 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment property, seller has 2 adjacent properties that he would like to sell togetherwith this one: 560 S. Recreation (multifamily) and 548 S. Recreation (vacant lot). Please drive by only, do not disturb tenants. Buyer to verify all amenities on the property.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1924

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.29%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $148
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $12,429
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93702

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $338	+0% $310	+5% $282	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $265	+0% $310	+5% $355	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $335	base $310	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
489 S Backer Ave Unit 1 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$975	$1.62	24d	1	0.19mi
445 S Maple Ave Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	480	$950	$1.98	2d	1	0.32mi
4860 E Lane Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$1,495	$2.02	24d	2	0.41mi
122 N Barton Ave Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	44d	1	0.71mi
5120 E Kings Canyon Rd Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,600	$1.97	2d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on marketlisting id $100,000 Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$429/yr (+$36/mo · 129.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,098
• − Management: −$1,098
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$525
• After-tax cash flow: $3,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,875
• Household income: $47,229
• Rent vs Own: 64.4% rent · 35.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2958.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 26% Asian 10% White 7% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Asian/Pacific 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.81%
• Current HPI: 467.2799
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $100,000 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $331 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.