3808 Sunset Dr · Ellenton, FL 34222

$239,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,441 sqft · Manufactured · 166 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $208k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. This stunning, brand-new Skyline Home features the highly coveted St. Augustine floor plan, spanning 1,460 sq. ft. of masterfully designed living space. This rare 2-car garage home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, blending an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings to create a bright, sophisticated atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired island kitchen, offering an expansive workspace and premium storage that makes both daily living and entertaining an absolute breeze. For relaxation, the spacious owner's

Key facts

• Covered concrete pad
• Island kitchen
• Covered carport

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• COVERED CARPORT
• COVERED CONCRETE PAD
• 6 SWIMMING POOLS
• 5 CLUBHOUSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3808 Sunset Dr, Ellenton FL 34222; Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $191,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence (St. Augustine plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,441 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, St. Augustine plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-632/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,108 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3449 71st Ave E	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-3%)	1mo	$268,000	$191	74
3607 70th Ave E	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-0%)	2mo	$275,000	$192	73
3445 71st Ave E	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (+3%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	70
3518 Mary Pl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	6mo	$125,000	$83	70
3413 Gloria Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-3%)	8mo	$163,750	$117	60
8206 Marie Ln	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-10%)	1mo	$187,000	$144	60
3432 71st Ave E	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$177	58
99 Meadow Cir	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-3%)	4mo	$120,000	$85	55
3522 70th Ave E	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-12%)	4mo	$245,000	$194	52
137 Osprey Cir	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-6%)	3mo	$190,000	$141	51
3113 Dorothy Pl	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-10%)	8mo	$140,000	$108	48
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-42,181
• Equity at exit: $35,755

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-40,924
• Equity at exit: $20,734

Cash invested: $67,144 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,597/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,098

Max offer price $232,181

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $30	+0% $-53	+5% $-136	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-133	+0% $-53	+5% $28	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $8	base $-53	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,950
• Closing costs: $7,194
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	23d	1	0.01mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	16d	1	0.16mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	25d	1	0.38mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	25d	1	0.45mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	25d	1	0.45mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	5d	1	0.59mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	5d	1	0.74mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	5d	1	0.89mi
9039 41st St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,445	$1.47	5d	1	0.91mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	5d	1	1.00mi
5605 78th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,800	$1.98	23d	1	1.13mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,829	$2.46	4d	37	1.21mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,300	$3.46	3d	67	1.39mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,433
• − Property taxes: −$3,597
• − Insurance: −$1,199
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$6,976
• Taxable loss: −$4,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,135
• After-tax cash flow: $504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B