5018 Ash Ct · Dickinson, TX 77539

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1965 9,740 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated home on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood has everything buyers want! Recent updates include fresh paint, new roof (Dec 2024), modern lighting, updated office, and new flooring. The welcoming family room features soaring cathedral ceilings, built-in shelving, and views of the backyard. The primary suite includes a tiled walk-in shower and granite vanity, while the island kitchen boasts updated cabinets, crown molding, and stainless steel appliances. Step outside to your private backyard oasis with a huge jacuzzi, screened patio, and lush landscaping—perfect for entertaining. Additional perks: detached garage, no HOA, and easy access to Hwy 3 & I-45. Don’t wait—call today before it’s gone!

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Updated cabinets
• Island kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• UPDATED OFFICE
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• GRANITE VANITY
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.4% in Dickinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#533 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,588
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5228 E Bayou Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-6%)	8mo	$265,000	$160	79
5002 Cedar Creek Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+3%)	0mo	$275,000	$152	71
4308 Meadow Glenn Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+3%)	2mo	$246,500	$136	64
4335 West Bayou Maison Cir	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-3%)	8mo	$290,900	$171	57
5310 Lafayette Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+3%)	10mo	$316,400	$174	56
5047 Winding Way	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+5%)	8mo	$225,000	$122	55
5311 West Bayou Maison Cir	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,915 (+9%)	2mo	$279,900	$146	53
4409 W Bayou Maison Cir	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,915 (+9%)	6mo	$309,400	$162	48
4314 West Bayou Maison Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-15%)	7mo	$287,400	$191	43
5310 Abbeville Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-8%)	6mo	$255,000	$157	43
4209 W Bayou Maison Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-15%)	2mo	$239,900	$160	42
4219 W Bayou Maison Cir	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,987 (+13%)	4mo	$285,000	$143	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,141
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $8,692
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,709/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $774	-5% $704	+0% $634	+5% $563	+10% $493
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $508	+0% $634	+5% $759	+10% $884
Rate	-1.0pp $759	-0.5pp $697	base $634	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5313 Palm Dr Unit 1546303P Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$5,645	$3.45	17d	1	1.09mi
3705 Misty Cove Ct Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $249,000 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    This beautifully updated home on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood has everything buyers want! Recent updates include fresh paint, new roof (Dec 2024), modern lighting, updated office, and new flooring. The welcoming family room features soaring cathedral ceilings, built-in shelving, and views of the backyard. The primary suite includes a tiled walk-in shower and granite vanity, while the island kitchen boasts updated cabinets, crown molding, and stainless steel appliances. Step outside to your private backyard oasis with a huge jacuzzi, screened patio, and lush landscaping—perfect for entertaining. Additional perks: detached garage, no HOA, and easy access to Hwy 3 & I-45. Don’t wait—call today before it’s gone!

15. 2026-04-19
    price $254,000 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    This beautifully updated home on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood has everything buyers want! Recent updates include fresh paint, new roof (Dec 2024), modern lighting, updated office, and new flooring. The welcoming family room features soaring cathedral ceilings, built-in shelving, and views of the backyard. The primary suite includes a tiled walk-in shower and granite vanity, while the island kitchen boasts updated cabinets, crown molding, and stainless steel appliances. Step outside to your private backyard oasis with a huge jacuzzi, screened patio, and lush landscaping—perfect for entertaining. Additional perks: detached garage, no HOA, and easy access to Hwy 3 & I-45. Don’t wait—call today before it’s gone!

16. 2026-03-18
    price $259,000 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    This beautifully updated home on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood has everything buyers want! Recent updates include fresh paint, new roof (Dec 2024), modern lighting, updated office, and new flooring. The welcoming family room features soaring cathedral ceilings, built-in shelving, and views of the backyard. The primary suite includes a tiled walk-in shower and granite vanity, while the island kitchen boasts updated cabinets, crown molding, and stainless steel appliances. Step outside to your private backyard oasis with a huge jacuzzi, screened patio, and lush landscaping—perfect for entertaining. Additional perks: detached garage, no HOA, and easy access to Hwy 3 & I-45. Don’t wait—call today before it’s gone!

17. 2026-03-15
    listed $269,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    This beautifully updated home on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood has everything buyers want! Recent updates include fresh paint, new roof (Dec 2024), modern lighting, updated office, and new flooring. The welcoming family room features soaring cathedral ceilings, built-in shelving, and views of the backyard. The primary suite includes a tiled walk-in shower and granite vanity, while the island kitchen boasts updated cabinets, crown molding, and stainless steel appliances. Step outside to your private backyard oasis with a huge jacuzzi, screened patio, and lush landscaping—perfect for entertaining. Additional perks: detached garage, no HOA, and easy access to Hwy 3 & I-45. Don’t wait—call today before it’s gone!

18. 2025-02-09
    status Pending
19. 2025-02-04
    historical $2,100
20. 2025-02-04
    status Option Pending
21. 2025-02-04
    historical
22. 2025-01-14
    listed $2,100
23. 2025-01-13
    listed $260,000 Active
24. 2025-01-01
    historical
25. 2024-12-29
    historical $2,100
26. 2024-12-10
    listed $2,100
27. 2024-12-09
    price $250,000
28. 2024-11-02
    price $255,000
29. 2024-09-22
    price $264,777
30. 2024-08-20
    price $269,777
31. 2024-07-01
    listed $274,777 Active
32. 2024-06-26
    historical
33. 2024-06-07
    listed $275,000 Active
34. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus
36. 2023-05-24
    status Pending
37. 2023-05-16
    status Option Pending
38. 2023-05-16
    status Active
39. 2023-05-10
    status Pending
40. 2023-05-01
    status Option Pending
41. 2023-04-27
    listed $235,000 Active
42. 2005-06-27
    soldstatus
43. 2003-03-01
    historical
44. 2002-08-05
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,709 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,709 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,709
• − Insurance: −$2,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,040
• − Management: −$3,040
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $3,980
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$955
• After-tax cash flow: $6,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dickinson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #533
• US rank: #10431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dickinson, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,375
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+149.2% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-29 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-22 Price Changed $264,777 HARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $269,777 HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $274,777 HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-27 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2005-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-08-05 Listed $99,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,709 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.