1635 Lockport Olcott Rd · Olcott, NY 14126

$164,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 1920 0.62 ac lot $151/sqft · 16% below area Est $196k · 16% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check this 3 bedroom 1 bath home out! Big living room, dining room and kitchen. Sitting on . 62 acres and just a rock throw from Olcott Beach and Lake Ontario! Enjoy a walk to all the summer events, food and fishing! Don't miss this great opportunity!

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Living room
• Dining room

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• LAKE ONTARIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#653 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newfane Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #257 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newfane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 450 students, 46% FRL); Newfane Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 343 students, 50% FRL); Newfane Senior High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 435 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,248 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,256
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -16.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1597 Franklin St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	970 (-11%)	9mo	$127,000	$131	62
6018 Godfrey Rd	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,220 (+12%)	2mo	$220,000	$180	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,818
• Equity at exit: $80,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $52,486
• Equity at exit: $130,611

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14126

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$205 /mo · $2,460/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $128,315

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-190	+0% $-247	+5% $-303	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-291	+0% $-247	+5% $-202	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-205	base $-247	+0.5pp $-289	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $164,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $164,000 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $164,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   price $164,000 251-char remark

   Show marketing remark (251 chars)

   Check this 3 bedroom 1 bath home out! Big living room, dining room and kitchen. Sitting on . 62 acres and just a rock throw from Olcott Beach and Lake Ontario! Enjoy a walk to all the summer events, food and fishing! Don't miss this great opportunity!

5. 2026-05-06
   price $189,000 251-char remark

   Show marketing remark (251 chars)

   Check this 3 bedroom 1 bath home out! Big living room, dining room and kitchen. Sitting on . 62 acres and just a rock throw from Olcott Beach and Lake Ontario! Enjoy a walk to all the summer events, food and fishing! Don't miss this great opportunity!

6. 2026-04-08
   listed $199,000 Active 251-char remark

   Show marketing remark (251 chars)

   Check this 3 bedroom 1 bath home out! Big living room, dining room and kitchen. Sitting on . 62 acres and just a rock throw from Olcott Beach and Lake Ontario! Enjoy a walk to all the summer events, food and fishing! Don't miss this great opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,460
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$5,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newfane Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620760
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,029
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1911
• State rank: #257 of 590 in NY

Livability — Olcott

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olcott, NY
• City population: 301
• Population (ZIP): 301

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 301.4624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $164,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $189,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $199,000 WNYREIS