12703 Glenhollow Dr · Houston, TX 77048

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1981 6,203 sqft lot Est $189k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Seeking direct buyer with capital in hand. 3 bed room in 6K feet lot. Houae 1k square feet. Conner lot.

Key facts

• 6,203 sq ft lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 6,203 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,856
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5119 Kilkenny Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	991 (-4%)	11mo	$130,000	$131	77
5135 Fairgreen Ln	0.45mi	3/1.0	938 (-9%)	6mo	$151,500	$162	55
11822 Greenshire Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+7%)	11mo	$215,000	$195	51
5319 Bungalow Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,146 (+11%)	11mo	$209,900	$183	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $25,785
• Equity at exit: $55,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $69,914
• Equity at exit: $83,605

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,331/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.45mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,472	$1.42	4d	13	0.47mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	22d	1	0.53mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	18d	1	0.53mi
11911 Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$1,050	$1.50	7d	1	0.62mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	18d	1	0.84mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	7d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	5d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	11d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	11d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,281	$1.10	3d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,081	$1.02	3d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	11d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	3d	1	0.90mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	43d	35	0.97mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	1d	26	0.99mi
13561 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	43d	1	0.99mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	1.02mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	7d	1	1.06mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	1.08mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	22d	1	1.10mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	1.13mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	43d	1	1.26mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	43d	1	1.29mi
13958 Cottingham St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,825	$1.74	2d	35	1.33mi
4071 Schurmier Rd Unit SLC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	3d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 103-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 2.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,331
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$237
• After-tax cash flow: $2,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $130,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,331 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.