Windrow Plan · San Antonio, TX 78245

$165,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 496 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $165,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $210,156.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $166k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 496 days — a 12% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $146,079 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 496 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,156
• List price: $165,999
• Delta: -21.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3911 Millbrook Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	5mo	$175,999	$170	79
3842 Glade Crk	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	4mo	$168,999	$164	79
3915 Millbrook Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+2%)	4mo	$173,999	$166	77
3734 Rock Mill Dm	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	11mo	$172,599	$167	77
3830 Glade Crk	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	7mo	$166,999	$162	76
3907 Millbrook Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+2%)	6mo	$177,999	$170	76
3718 Rock Mill Dm	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	12mo	$171,999	$167	76
3806 Glade Crk	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	7mo	$168,999	$164	75
3802 Glade Crk	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+2%)	7mo	$178,999	$171	72
3710 Glade Crk	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	7mo	$165,999	$161	69
3414 Rock Mill Dm	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	11mo	$161,999	$157	62
3406 Rock Mill Dm	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	11mo	$213,999	$207	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-47,082
• Equity at exit: $31,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-70,366
• Equity at exit: $18,170

Cash invested: $58,844 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,102
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$263 /mo · $3,152/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $191,663

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,539
• Closing costs: $6,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3919 Gristmill Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,545	$1.05	23d	1	0.15mi
3833 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,497	$1.21	21d	1	0.39mi
3704 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1013	$1,800	$1.78	43d	1	0.52mi
3650 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,497	$1.33	23d	1	0.56mi
3651 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	23d	1	0.57mi
14360 W Grosenbacher Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,994	$2.05	1d	20	0.62mi
3614 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,548	$1.19	14d	1	0.63mi
5022 Flight Sail San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	1.02mi
5525 Mansions Blfs San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$1,613	$1.86	1d	48	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,999 Active 496 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,999 Active 495 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,999 Active 494 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,999 Active 493 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,999 Active 491 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,999 Active 487 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,999 Active 486 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,999 Active 485 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,999 Active 482 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,999 Active 481 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $165,999 Active 480 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $166,999 Active 479 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $166,999 Active 478 DOM
14. 2025-08-24
    price $169,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

15. 2025-07-17
    price $183,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2025-05-15
    price $193,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2025-02-08
    listed $194,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,772
• − Property taxes: −$3,152
• − Insurance: −$1,051
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$6,114
• Taxable loss: −$5,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,245
• After-tax cash flow: $-288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $169,999 Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $183,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $193,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Listed $194,999 Zillow