2931 Sun Spot Cir · Anchorage, AK 99507

$179,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1984 4,025 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this 3-bedroom townhome located in South Anchorage! This property offers great potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity through updates and improvements. This home is ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life. While it needs some work, the price reflects the opportunity, making it one of the best values in the area. Whether you're searching for your next investment project or an affordable way to buy a home, this townhome is worth a look--don't miss your chance to unlock its potential!

Key facts

• 4,025 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1984

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Attached property; Built in 1984
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Other foundation type
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Located in a road service area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Interior features: Basement; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abbott Loop Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #128 of 156 statewide, top 86%, 248 students, 75% FRL); Hanshew Middle School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #27 of 36 statewide, top 74%, 691 students, 42% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.23%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,486
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8020 Sabrina St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+4%)	2mo	$335,000	$246	78
7809 Moose Run Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+3%)	12mo	$349,900	$262	74
8530 Gordon Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-3%)	7mo	$385,000	$305	74
7801 Spruce St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,372 (+5%)	5mo	$319,500	$233	63
7811 Snow View Dr	0.23mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,428 (+10%)	9mo	$305,995	$214	60
7721 Virda Lee Cir	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,216 (-7%)	13mo	$285,000	$234	59
7680 Delridge Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+12%)	9mo	$424,900	$290	57
7730 Little Bend Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-10%)	3mo	$367,900	$316	52
7711 Little Bend Cir	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,488 (+14%)	1mo	$436,000	$293	46
8921 Little Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,464 (+12%)	12mo	$470,000	$321	44
7324 Zurich St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+10%)	11mo	$445,000	$309	43
7950 Casey Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+10%)	11mo	$450,000	$313	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $23,504
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $117,080
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99507

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,739/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,782

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $779	-5% $728	+0% $678	+5% $627	+10% $576
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $573	+0% $678	+5% $782	+10% $886
Rate	-1.0pp $768	-0.5pp $723	base $678	+0.5pp $631	+1.0pp $584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8124 Marsha Loop Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,700	$1.82	45d	1	0.09mi
2721 E 84th Ave Unit A Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,900	$2.11	24d	1	0.20mi
7330 Meadow St Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1028	$2,399	$2.33	24d	1	0.92mi
2400 Sentry Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	910	$1,700	$1.87	22d	1	0.93mi
7310 Chugach Meadows Loop Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1028	$2,399	$2.33	22d	1	0.95mi
7308 Chugach Meadows Loop Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.5	1240	$2,550	$2.06	15d	1	0.95mi
6521 Baby Bear Dr Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,995	$1.99	45d	1	0.97mi
2969 Silver Chase Ct Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,700	$1.95	45d	1	1.38mi
701 E 78th Ave Unit 705 Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	15d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $179,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 553-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $179,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,739 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,739 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$4,739
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $5,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $6,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 37,301
• Household income: $107,992
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 6% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.29%
• Current HPI: 273.1227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+69.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $179,000 AKMLS
• 2005-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-17 Listed $177,500 AKMLS
• 1996-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-30 Listed $105,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,739 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.