The Cali Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

$329,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Cali located at the peaceful Titus Park community in Panama City, Florida. The Cali is one of our popular one-story floor plans used in many communities across the country, making it an excellent choice for a new home. With this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home, you will see 1,799 square feet of spacious living perfect for a small family to enjoy comfortably. As you walk inside the Cali, you will see the long main hallway leading you to the open living room and kitchen. The 8' ceilings throughout the home add to the feeling of this open, spacious floorplan.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Open living room
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY

🏗️ New construction. The $329,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,516.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deer Point Elementary School (math 55% / reading 49%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 705 students, 55% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1365 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,977 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,516
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -0.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4904 Rosemary St	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-2%)	2mo	$339,900	$189	88
4740 Loblolly Way	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,834 (+0%)	1mo	$290,000	$158	88
4813 Windrow Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-2%)	1mo	$354,900	$197	86
5186 Hastings Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-2%)	2mo	$355,430	$198	74
4888 Rosemary St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-11%)	2mo	$309,900	$189	70
4889 Rosemary St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-11%)	2mo	$310,888	$190	70
4908 Rosemary St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-11%)	1mo	$309,900	$189	69
4837 Windrow Way	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+7%)	2mo	$399,900	$203	68
4901 Rosemary St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-11%)	3mo	$309,900	$189	68
4877 Windrow Way	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+7%)	2mo	$379,900	$193	65
4885 Windrow Way	0.38mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+7%)	3mo	$394,900	$201	64
4415 College Station Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (+0%)	2mo	$325,000	$177	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-86,822
• Equity at exit: $49,579

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-129,493
• Equity at exit: $28,750

Cash invested: $93,104 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,900 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1365
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,744
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,988/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,909

Max offer price $267,469

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-335	+0% $-450	+5% $-564	+10% $-679
Rent	-10% $-634	-5% $-542	+0% $-450	+5% $-357	+10% $-265
Rate	-1.0pp $-282	-0.5pp $-365	base $-450	+0.5pp $-536	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,129
• Closing costs: $9,975
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5057 Windrow Way Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,300	$1.28	116d	1	0.31mi
5116 Sienna Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	6d	1	0.34mi
5028 Rivergrass Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	6d	1	0.37mi
198 MILL BAYOU Blvd Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$2,110	$1.65	116d	3	0.48mi
4201 County Road 390 Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,999	$1.57	116d	7	0.67mi
4031 Oak Forest Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	116d	1	0.81mi
109 S Shoreview Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	2.5	2252	$2,850	$1.27	6d	1	0.87mi
5284 Emma Grace Dr Panama City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2117	$2,377	$1.12	6d	1	0.88mi
4417 Bylsma Cir Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	2276	$2,600	$1.14	6d	1	0.97mi
4501 Bylsma Cir Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	2073	$2,300	$1.11	6d	1	0.97mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,100	$1.18	6d	1	1.03mi
5020 Pretty Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,150	$1.21	6d	1	1.03mi
4007 Pioneer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,200	$1.23	6d	1	1.10mi
5424 Nicole Blvd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	6d	1	1.10mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	116d	1	1.11mi
5419 Blue Dog Rd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,300	$1.28	6d	1	1.13mi
4840 McCall Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,300	$1.27	6d	1	1.15mi
4415 Conifer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,200	$1.26	6d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Panama City, FL 32404
• Financial info: Listing price $329,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: The Cali plan (new construction plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1799

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $329,900 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $329,900 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $329,900 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $329,900 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $329,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $329,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $329,900 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $329,900 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $329,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $329,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $329,900 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $329,900 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $329,900 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $329,900 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $329,900 Active 133 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $329,900 Active 132 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $329,900 Active 131 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $329,900 Active 130 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $329,900 Active 129 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $329,900 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $329,900 Active 127 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $329,900 Active 126 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $329,900 Active 125 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $329,900 Active 124 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $329,900 Active 123 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $329,900 Active 122 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $329,900 Active 121 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $329,900 Active 120 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $329,900 Active 119 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $329,900 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $329,900 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $329,900 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $329,900 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $329,900 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $329,900 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $329,900 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $329,900 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $329,900 Active 104 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $329,900 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $329,900 Active 100 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $329,900 Active 99 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $329,900 Active 98 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,626
• − Property taxes: −$4,988
• − Insurance: −$1,663
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − Depreciation: −$9,673
• Taxable loss: −$11,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,728
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Deer Point Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High A. Crawford Mosley High School C- FL #148/667 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Panama City, FL 32404
• Financial info: Listing price $329,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: The Cali plan (new construction plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1799