20 Frasier Lane Ln SW Unit C106 · Ludowici, GA 31316

$229,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily · 197 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $158/sqft · 10% below area Est $255k · 10% under $120/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Stillwater Commons: Ludowici's Premier Gated Community – Now Pre-Selling! Experience modern, low-maintenance living in this brand-new gated development. Featuring a blend of 1 and 2-story townhomes, residents will enjoy an upcoming dog park and playground. Building B offers 2-story units with 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathroom, and 1120 sq. ft. (104 sqm). Inside, you'll find a sleek kitchen with crisp white cabinetry and stainless steel appliances, complemented by durable LVP flooring (no carpet) throughout. Each home includes a private fenced-in yard and 2 designated parking spaces.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog park
• Playground

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• DOG PARK
• PLAYGROUND
• PRIVATE FENCED-IN YARD
• DESIGNATED PARKING SPACES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-645/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 597 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,096
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -10.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 SW Oak Ridge Cemetery Rd SW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+1%)	12mo	$285,000	$193	82
56 Thomas Way SE	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+4%)	2mo	$256,399	$170	63
60 Oak Ridge Cemetery Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	18mo	$227,000	$175	60
183 Franklin Tree Dr NE	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+6%)	23mo	$253,300	$164	58
19 SW Pecan St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	3mo	$199,900	$154	54
70 Harmonees Way	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,501 (+3%)	14mo	$247,000	$165	52
239 Mill Pond Rd SE	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-11%)	3mo	$268,000	$208	42
613 S Macon St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-12%)	15mo	$217,000	$169	41
633 S Macon St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (+8%)	17mo	$255,000	$162	40
9 Forman Way SE	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+6%)	19mo	$265,900	$173	34
1046 Buster Phillips Rd SE	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-14%)	20mo	$240,000	$192	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,745
• Equity at exit: $80,072

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $43,621
• Equity at exit: $107,888

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $229,000 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 197 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 597
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,155

Max offer price $221,222

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $25	+0% $-54	+5% $-133	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-136	+0% $-54	+5% $29	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $4	base $-54	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 W Franklin St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,050	$1.20	0d	1	0.24mi
147 Rimes Ave SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,100	$1.18	184d	1	0.51mi
363 S McDonald St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1626	$1,500	$0.92	44d	1	0.63mi
16 Forman Way SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,100	$1.17	0d	1	0.68mi
34 Pine St Unit C C Ludowici, GA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,395	$1.41	184d	1	0.84mi
102 Morgan Ct SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1209	$1,586	$1.31	36d	1	1.06mi
171 Baker Field Ln SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,350	$1.30	184d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Stillwater Commons
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $125 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo levels (2 stories)Under construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy fencingShingle roofLot features: OtherRoad frontage: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplace6 total rooms

HOA detail $120/mo · $1,440/yr

• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $229,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $229,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $229,000 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $229,000 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $229,000 Active 186 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $229,000 Active 185 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $229,000 Active 184 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $229,000 Active 183 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $229,000 Active 182 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $229,000 Active 181 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $229,000 Active 180 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $229,000 Active 179 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $229,000 Active 178 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $229,000 Active 177 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $229,000 Active 176 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $229,000 Active 175 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 174 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $229,000 Active 173 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $229,000 Active 172 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $229,000 Active 171 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $229,000 Active 170 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $229,000 Active 169 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $229,000 Active 168 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 167 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 166 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 165 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $229,000 Active 164 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 163 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 162 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 161 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 160 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 159 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 158 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $229,000 Active 157 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $229,000 Active 156 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $229,000 Active 155 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $229,000 Active 154 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $229,000 Active 153 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $229,000 Active 152 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $229,000 Active 151 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $229,000 Active 150 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $229,000 Active 148 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $229,000 Active 147 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $229,000 Active 146 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,073
• After-tax cash flow: $428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new townhome in Stillwater Commons is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It offers a sleek kitchen, spacious living areas, and modern amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-up — Maintains a fresh look ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Ensures functionality and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Smiley Elementary School Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ludowici, GA
• County: Long County · 24,669 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Stillwater Commons
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $125 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo levels (2 stories)Under construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy fencingShingle roofLot features: OtherRoad frontage: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplace6 total rooms

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $229,000 HABR