26262 County Rd 21a #88 · Esparto, CA 95627

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 546 Days on market

Built 1985 $125/sqft · 56% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great 2/2 mobile home in 55+ mobile home park. Some updates have been done throughout but needs a little TLC.

Key facts

• Mobile home park
• Updates done
• Parking

Tags

• MOBILE HOME PARK
• UPDATES DONE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $753 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#548 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Esparto Unified (town): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #454 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 546 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 546 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.73%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,224
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 56.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26262 Country Rd 21 A #45	0.03mi	2/2.0	780 (-7%)	2mo	$31,000	$40	86
26262 County Road 21a #18	0.00mi	2/1.0	832 (-1%)	12mo	$59,900	$72	84
26262 County Road 21a #44	0.00mi	2/1.5	840 (0%)	23mo	$94,000	$112	79
26528 Madison St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	16mo	$300,000	$313	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $30,960
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $88,813
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95627

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16881 Antelope St Esparto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,975	$2.19	11d	1	0.40mi
16877 Antelope St Esparto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,975	$2.19	11d	1	0.41mi
16816 Antelope St Unit 9 Esparto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	20d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 546 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 545 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 544 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 543 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 542 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 540 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 539 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 537 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 536 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 535 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 534 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 531 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 530 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 529 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 528 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 527 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 526 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $7,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,879
• After-tax cash flow: $7,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Esparto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,408
• Composite: 18.39/100
• National rank: #8939
• State rank: #454 of 517 in CA

Livability — Esparto

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #18205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Esparto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,935

Population outlook (Yolo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,183 people
• By 2030: 257,662 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 288,050 · +18.9%
• By 2050: 318,202 · +31.4%
• By 2075: 392,736 · +62.2%
• By 2100: 438,150 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yolo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.2) · D 66.3% · R 30.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.2 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+33.2 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.20%
• Current HPI: 309.7677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B