Is 7039 Kingston Cv #307 in Willis, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 6.3% cap rate and $-64/mo modeled cash flow at a $250,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 7039 Kingston Cv #307?

The modeled cap rate is 6.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,585/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🌊 Lakefront

C- Composite 50.34

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +13.4/30.0
1% rule +5.3/10.0
DSCR +4.0/10.0
Schools +3.8/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$250,000

7039 Kingston Cv #307 · Willis, TX 77318

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,011 sqft · Condo · 113 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $247/sqft · 24% below area Est $329k · 24% under · waterfront $312/mo HOA · 12% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sunset Harbor at Lake Conroe, an exclusive waterfront retreat offering refined, fully furnished living in the heart of Seven Coves with boat deck. Whether as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or income-producing property, this elegant condo offers exceptional versatility. This beautifully updated third-floor unit features a unique dual-layout design, allowing it to function as a spacious 2bed 2bath home or as two private suites with separate entrances ideal for guests or rental income. The living space is highlighted by a gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, granite countertops, and a stylish coffee/wine bar.

Key facts

Custom cabinetry
Gourmet kitchen
Granite countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-768/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
Recommended offer: $228k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.03% ✓
Cap rate: 6.30%
Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
DSCR: 1.00
GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $329,114
List price: $250,000
Delta: -24.04%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.2%
Equity multiple: 0.26×
Total profit: $-51,890
Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

IRR: -29.5%
Equity multiple: -0.12×
Total profit: $-78,606
Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

Home prices YoY: -32.7%
Rents YoY: -2.1%
Active inventory: 1387
Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,585 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
Insurance: −$104
Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA: −$312
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,666

Max offer price $240,741

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $22	+0% $-64	+5% $-150	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-166	+0% $-64	+5% $38	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $0	base $-64	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $62,500
Closing costs: $7,500
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11931 Lakeview Manor Dr Unit 1545984P Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$4,843	$4.06	64d	1	1.02mi
801 River Rd Unit 116 Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,350	$1.39	48d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Lease not considered
HOA & community: Advantage Sunset Harbor associationMonthly association feeAssociation amenities include basketball court, marina, clubhouse, fitness center, maintained grounds, park, pool, and tennis courtsAssociation fee covers common areas, cable TV, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

Parking: Parking details not specified
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property3 storiesFull ownership
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofPillar/post/pier and slab foundationBuilt in 2006
Exterior features: BalconyTennis courtsAssociation poolBacks to greenbelt/parkBoat dock/slipBoat ramp/lift accessHas a view

Interior

Kitchen: Electric cooktopMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 16)Additional bedroom on first floor (11 x 12)2 possible bedrooms total
Flooring: TileWood
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: BalconyKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboPantryWalk-in pantryTub with shower
Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $312/mo · $3,744/yr condo

Likely covers: water
Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $250,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $250,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $250,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $250,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $250,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $250,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $250,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $250,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $250,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $250,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $250,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $250,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $250,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $250,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-10

price $250,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $255,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $255,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $255,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $255,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $255,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $255,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $255,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $255,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $255,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $255,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $255,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $255,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $255,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $255,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $31,020
− Mortgage interest: −$14,004
− Property taxes: −$3,750
− Insurance: −$2,048
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
− Management: −$2,482
− HOA: −$3,744
− Depreciation: −$7,273
Taxable loss: −$4,761

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
After-tax cash flow: $375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,055–$15,165 screening

This waterfront condo is in good condition with a good ROI potential. It has a unique dual-layout design and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace ceiling fans — Modern ceiling fans improve air circulation and aesthetics ↑
Both Replace tile flooring — New tile flooring would improve durability and appearance ↑
Both Install new kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances would attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Willis ISD
NCES district ID: 4845900
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,828
Composite: 32.32/100
National rank: #5746
State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

Score: 62/100
State rank: #933
US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 38,421
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 20,792
Household income: $92,415
Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
Current HPI: 236.256
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+12682.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-04-17 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
2026-02-04 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
2025-07-23 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
2025-05-29 Rental Removed $1,995 HARMLS
2025-05-07 Listed for Rent $1,995 HARMLS
2025-05-01 Rental Removed $1,995 HARMLS
2025-04-02 Listed for Rent $1,995 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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