Odyssey Plan · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$343,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spontaneous get-togethers can center in the kitchen of the Odyssey showcasing elegant cabinetry and the spacious gathering room. Or simply enjoy an open-air meal on the covered patio outdoors.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $343,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $451,716.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $344k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 951 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,444 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.50%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $451,716
• List price: $343,990
• Delta: -23.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18860 N 262nd Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,575 (+3%)	4mo	$455,000	$289	84
26651 W Kimberly Way	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+3%)	3mo	$446,990	$284	76
18885 N 266th Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+3%)	8mo	$411,900	$262	74
26797 W Mcrae Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,575 (+3%)	0mo	$400,000	$254	72
26128 W Rosemonte Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,646 (+8%)	1mo	$389,000	$236	68
19794 N 264th Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,494 (-2%)	1mo	$340,000	$228	68
26820 W Kerry Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+3%)	1mo	$452,700	$288	67
19188 N 268th Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,633 (+7%)	4mo	$420,000	$257	57
19667 N 260th Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (-2%)	4mo	$344,000	$230	56
26123 W Oraibi Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,398 (-8%)	8mo	$300,000	$215	53
18683 N 268th Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,716 (+12%)	7mo	$428,090	$249	51
18716 N 268th Ave	0.51mi	2/2.5	1,716 (+12%)	8mo	$481,990	$281	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-135,799
• Equity at exit: $67,352

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-195,579
• Equity at exit: $39,056

Cash invested: $126,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,369
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$565 /mo · $6,776/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-1,001

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,952

Max offer price $306,870

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-689	-5% $-845	+0% $-1,001	+5% $-1,157	+10% $-1,313
Rent	-10% $-1,213	-5% $-1,107	+0% $-1,001	+5% $-895	+10% $-789
Rate	-1.0pp $-774	-0.5pp $-886	base $-1,001	+0.5pp $-1,118	+1.0pp $-1,237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,929
• Closing costs: $13,551
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26704 W McRae Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	2014	$4,000	$1.99	3d	1	0.39mi
18675 N 268th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1865	$1,799	$0.96	45d	1	0.49mi
26087 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,300	$1.42	45d	1	0.69mi
26182 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,695	$1.04	4d	1	0.71mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	20d	1	0.71mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	0d	1	0.75mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	4d	1	1.00mi
20493 N 264th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,200	$2.14	0d	1	1.07mi
20002 N 269th Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$3,500	$1.78	0d	1	1.08mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	26d	1	1.20mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	0d	1	1.21mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	45d	1	1.24mi
20540 N 268th Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1961	$2,000	$1.02	0d	1	1.25mi
26043 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.5	2025	$1,900	$0.94	0d	1	1.27mi
26043 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.5	2025	$1,900	$0.94	4d	1	1.27mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	3d	1	1.31mi
26824 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	2092	$3,500	$1.67	45d	1	1.34mi
26990 W Burnett Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,000	$2.04	0d	1	1.37mi
27389 W Wahalla Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.5	1717	$3,500	$2.04	0d	1	1.38mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	45d	1	1.44mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $343,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $343,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $343,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $343,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $343,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $343,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $343,990 Active 947 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $343,990 Active 944 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $343,990 Active 943 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $343,990 Active 942 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 939 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 938 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $343,990 Active 937 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $343,990 Active 936 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 935 DOM
16. 2026-01-02
    price $343,990 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Spontaneous get-togethers can center in the kitchen of the Odyssey showcasing elegant cabinetry and the spacious gathering room. Or simply enjoy an open-air meal on the covered patio outdoors.

17. 2025-07-04
    price $341,990 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Spontaneous get-togethers can center in the kitchen of the Odyssey showcasing elegant cabinetry and the spacious gathering room. Or simply enjoy an open-air meal on the covered patio outdoors.

18. 2023-11-08
    listed $338,990 Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Spontaneous get-togethers can center in the kitchen of the Odyssey showcasing elegant cabinetry and the spacious gathering room. Or simply enjoy an open-air meal on the covered patio outdoors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,303
• − Property taxes: −$6,776
• − Insurance: −$2,259
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − Depreciation: −$13,141
• Taxable loss: −$20,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,901
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $343,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $338,990 Zillow