37 Hubbard Ave #38 · Riverhead, NY 11901

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 1970 $208/sqft · 73% above area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful Mobil home located in Riverhaven 55+ community in the hearth of Riverhead close to Shoping and restaurants, renovated in 2020, offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, eaten kitchen, laundry and a very spacious living room, low taxes. Park rent includes Land lease, water, trash snow removal and cesspool maintenance. it must see!!!

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 4.6% in Riverhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.98%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,164
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 73.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $50,341
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $134,846
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $1,108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 E Main St Unit 404 Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	712	$3,750	$5.27	44d	1	0.86mi
221 E Main St Unit 227 Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	680	$2,154	$3.17	44d	1	0.92mi
221 E Main St Unit 502 Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	624	$1,794	$2.88	44d	1	0.92mi
1228 Roanoke Ave Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$2,200	$4.40	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $125,000 Active 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful Mobil home located in Riverhaven 55+ community in the hearth of Riverhead close to Shoping and restaurants, renovated in 2020, offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, eaten kitchen, laundry and a very spacious living room, low taxes. Park rent includes Land lease, water, trash snow removal and cesspool maintenance. it must see!!!

15. 2025-12-01
    historical
16. 2025-11-24
    price $120,000
17. 2025-06-30
    listed $130,000 Active
18. 2025-05-28
    historical
19. 2025-03-22
    price $97,000
20. 2025-02-14
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $12,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,885
• After-tax cash flow: $10,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverhead

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #5379

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverhead, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listed $130,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $97,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid