1-K Wye Oak Dr Unit 1-K · Bel Air South, MD 21015

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 1973 Average condition $250/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right into this penthouse condo in a prime Bel Air location! This 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home features an open layout with fresh neutral tones, plush carpeting, and large windows that fill the space with natural light. The inviting living room flows into a separate dining area, creating the perfect setup for both everyday living and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, a gas stove, and room for a breakfast table by the oversized window. The spacious primary suite features a large closet, ceiling fan, and private full bath, while the second bedroom is generously sized and conveniently located near the hall bath. Additional highlights include ceiling f

Key facts

• $250 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Condo fee of $250 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool(s), snow removal, and trash; Community amenity: outdoor pool

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking space in a parking lot (1 space total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat); Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Entry on level 3; Brick front; Pets allowed on a case-by-case basis
• Construction: Brick front construction
• Exterior features: Community outdoor pool; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range - Gas; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Carpet; Galley kitchen; Kitchen with table space; Master bathroom; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Washer/Dryer hookups in unit; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $159k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.86%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,279
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $53,373
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21015

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $495	+0% $440	+5% $385	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $350	+0% $440	+5% $529	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $520	-0.5pp $480	base $440	+0.5pp $399	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 Russo Way Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1199	$2,459	$2.05	2d	16	0.51mi
200 Foxhall Dr Bel Air, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$1,904	$2.06	2d	28	0.55mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	1.03mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	44d	1	1.08mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	15d	1	1.30mi
644 Berwick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,395	$1.60	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1060-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $159,000 Active 1060-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $3,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$747
• After-tax cash flow: $4,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 16 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhouse is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and could be replaced
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and could be replaced
• Minor landscaping — needs attention

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · needs attention	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,013
• Household income: $137,281
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.26%
• Current HPI: 251.2512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS