1011 Bainbridge Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,857 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2002 7,405 sqft lot $113/sqft · 22% below area Est $267k · 22% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1011 Bainbridge! 2 open livingrooms provide space for the whole family. Secondary rooms are up front with a full bath. Right off the second livingroom you'll find the primary retreat, complete with separate bath and shower. The large covered cedar patio is perfect for outdoor entertaining. Schedule a showing today. This property is part of the First Look Program until 5-18-26. Owner occupants only.

Key facts

• Primary retreat
• Open livingrooms
• Full bath

Tags

• OPEN LIVINGROOMS
• FULL BATH
• PRIMARY RETREAT
• COVERED CEDAR PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,936 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,390
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -21.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1015 Bainbridge Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+7%)	8mo	$299,000	$151	81
1019 Chelsea Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (-1%)	11mo	$269,900	$147	81
1016 Halifax Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,678 (-10%)	0mo	$240,000	$143	80
1020 Halifax Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-7%)	11mo	$250,000	$145	74
1005 Sussex Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,702 (-8%)	4mo	$250,000	$147	68
1006 Buckingham Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (-1%)	3mo	$254,900	$138	63
3111 Flowering Spgs	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,957 (+5%)	5mo	$281,900	$144	60
3115 Marble Falls Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,952 (+5%)	14mo	$300,000	$154	55
3102 Flowering Springs Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+7%)	7mo	$274,999	$139	53
4306 Cat Tail Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (-9%)	7mo	$265,000	$157	42
3121 Granite Rock Trl	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,124 (+14%)	3mo	$299,900	$141	41
4322 Cat Tail Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,642 (-12%)	12mo	$253,000	$154	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,029
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-51,039
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$509 /mo · $6,108/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $201,936

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $14	+0% $-45	+5% $-104	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-130	+0% $-45	+5% $40	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $8	base $-45	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1019 Chelsea Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,205	$1.20	0d	1	0.06mi
1112 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,880	$1.27	0d	1	0.08mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,895	$1.20	44d	1	0.14mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,725	$1.11	8d	1	0.14mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	18d	1	0.21mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	8d	1	0.21mi
1201 Cumberland Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2077	$2,100	$1.01	8d	1	0.25mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	4d	1	0.31mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	25d	1	0.31mi
1111 Cumberland Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,750	$1.23	44d	1	0.34mi
3005 Guadalupe Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2169	$2,195	$1.01	44d	1	0.37mi
1002 Manassas Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$1,999	$1.21	44d	1	0.40mi
1002 Manassas Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,250	$1.36	6d	1	0.40mi
3111 Flint Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,295	$1.05	8d	1	0.41mi
3100 Marble Falls Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2124	$2,195	$1.03	44d	1	0.47mi
3018 Sweetwater Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,950	$1.27	7d	1	0.52mi
4315 Elderberry St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,950	$1.37	44d	1	0.52mi
1003 Windmill Farms Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$2,170	$2.01	0d	36	0.52mi
3111 Marble Falls Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,145	$1.10	44d	1	0.53mi
3010 Sweetwater Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.54mi
5015 Royal Springs Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2066	$2,125	$1.03	44d	1	0.61mi
1300 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,492	$2.40	0d	22	0.61mi
3125 Granite Rock Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,350	$1.12	19d	1	0.61mi
2004 Chisolm Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,150	$1.26	19d	1	0.66mi
4620 Elderberry St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$1,850	$1.00	21d	1	0.68mi
4222 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	18d	1	0.82mi
4432 Thalia Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	44d	1	0.83mi
8050 Privet St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,100	$1.03	25d	1	0.85mi
4254 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,400	$1.21	44d	1	0.88mi
4146 Perch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2456	$2,500	$1.02	21d	1	0.91mi
3007 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.95mi
9200 Hawthorne Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2037	$2,440	$1.20	12d	1	0.95mi
9105 Switchgrass Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1962	$2,800	$1.43	11d	1	0.96mi
2100 Aster Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2284	$2,190	$0.96	5d	1	0.97mi
3016 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,100	$1.25	44d	1	1.01mi
2015 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	21d	1	1.03mi
2006 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1912	$2,050	$1.07	44d	1	1.04mi
2026 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,315	$1.07	44d	1	1.04mi
3023 Villegas Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,875	$1.11	25d	1	1.04mi
3017 Villegas Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,150	$1.00	44d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $209,900 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 43 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active Option Contract 42 DOM
10. 2026-04-18
    listed $209,900 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Welcome to 1011 Bainbridge! 2 open livingrooms provide space for the whole family. Secondary rooms are up front with a full bath. Right off the second livingroom you'll find the primary retreat, complete with separate bath and shower. The large covered cedar patio is perfect for outdoor entertaining. Schedule a showing today. This property is part of the First Look Program until 5-18-26. Owner occupants only.

11. 2026-03-26
    historical
12. 2026-02-05
    listed $65,000 Active
13. 2019-02-26
    soldstatus
14. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2019-01-16
    status Pending
16. 2018-12-12
    listed $203,000 Active
17. 2018-11-27
    soldstatus
18. 2005-06-29
    soldstatus
19. 2005-06-28
    soldstatus
20. 2005-06-07
    historical
21. 2004-10-29
    listed $135,000
22. 2002-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,108 · $509/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,108 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$6,108
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $209,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2019-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-01-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-12-12 Listed $203,000 NTREIS
• 2018-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-10-29 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2002-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,108 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.