1504 22nd St St · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2014 4,050 sqft lot $102/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living in Horseshoe Bay! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers a comfortable split bedroom floor plan designed for everyday living. Vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, creating a clean, cohesive look that is both durable and easy to maintain. The spacious living area flows into the kitchen, where a large island provides extra prep space, and a natural gathering spot for family and guests. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the secondary bedrooms, offering a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to the large back deck, an ideal place to enjoy peaceful mornings, unwind in the evenings, and take in the quiet atmosphere of Horseshoe Bay. Additional features include a laundry room with an extra refrigerator that conveys with the home and great curb appeal that makes a welcoming first impression. An affordable opportunity to enjoy the Horseshoe Bay lifestyle, whether as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment property.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Laundry room
• Large island

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• LARGE ISLAND
• LARGE BACK DECK
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• CURB APPEAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1227 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.99%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,000
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -2.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2508 Gazelle Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	19mo	$175,000	$125	65
1605 Colonneh St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	4mo	$164,000	$113	61
6001 Pronghorn	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-5%)	23mo	$199,800	$134	60
1904 Colonneh	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	18mo	$199,000	$148	42
1808 Cripple Creek St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	23mo	$239,900	$165	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $31,094
• Equity at exit: $54,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $93,444
• Equity at exit: $71,588

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1227
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,705/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $493	+0% $447	+5% $402	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $289	-5% $368	+0% $447	+5% $526	+10% $605
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $488	base $447	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2203 25th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,525	$0.91	25d	1	0.36mi
201 36th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,300	$1.39	21d	1	0.82mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	0d	1	1.17mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	14d	1	1.31mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	24d	1	1.32mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	24d	2	1.32mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	24d	1	1.44mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	45d	1	1.48mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	1.48mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   price $159,900 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Affordable living in Horseshoe Bay! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers a comfortable split bedroom floor plan designed for everyday living. Vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, creating a clean, cohesive look that is both durable and easy to maintain. The spacious living area flows into the kitchen, where a large island provides extra prep space, and a natural gathering spot for family and guests. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the secondary bedrooms, offering a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to the large back deck, an ideal place to enjoy peaceful mornings, unwind in the evenings, and take in the quiet atmosphere of Horseshoe Bay. Additional features include a laundry room with an extra refrigerator that conveys with the home and great curb appeal that makes a welcoming first impression. An affordable opportunity to enjoy the Horseshoe Bay lifestyle, whether as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment property.

2. 2026-03-11
   listed $172,900 Active 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Affordable living in Horseshoe Bay! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers a comfortable split bedroom floor plan designed for everyday living. Vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, creating a clean, cohesive look that is both durable and easy to maintain. The spacious living area flows into the kitchen, where a large island provides extra prep space, and a natural gathering spot for family and guests. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the secondary bedrooms, offering a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to the large back deck, an ideal place to enjoy peaceful mornings, unwind in the evenings, and take in the quiet atmosphere of Horseshoe Bay. Additional features include a laundry room with an extra refrigerator that conveys with the home and great curb appeal that makes a welcoming first impression. An affordable opportunity to enjoy the Horseshoe Bay lifestyle, whether as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment property.

3. 2019-12-02
   soldstatus
4. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus
5. 2017-09-27
   soldstatus
6. 1999-10-07
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,705
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$725
• After-tax cash flow: $4,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $159,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-11 Listed $172,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+47.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,705 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.