9899 Tobermory Ave · Clarence, NY 14031

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2004 436 sqft lot Est $191k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner took great pride in her home, and it truly shows! This well-maintained home offers a bright, open floor plan and a beautifully updated kitchen filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting feel throughout. A true highlight of the home is the amazing extra-large covered porch, perfect for your morning coffee, relaxing, or entertaining friends. The spacious primary bedroom offers two closets and a private primary bathroom complete with walk-in shower. Important updates have already been completed, including the furnace (2020), hot water tank (2023), central A/C (2023), and newer carpeting for added comfort. Outside, you’ll find an extra-long driveway and a larger shed of

Key facts

• Extra-long driveway
• Updated kitchen
• Library

Tags

• EXTRA-LARGE COVERED PORCH
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• EXTRA-LONG DRIVEWAY
• LARGER SHED
• CLUBHOUSE FEATURING KITCHEN
• LIBRARY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: monthly fee required
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Community kitchen; Located in a senior community; Land lease fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double-wide mobile home; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Existing (built previously)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Open living/dining area; Primary bedroom with private bath; Primary on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.3% in Clarence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.09%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,160
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9808 Tottenham Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,728 (+7%)	4mo	$152,500	$88	78
9908 Limehouse Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+3%)	21mo	$198,000	$118	69
9811 Kingsthorpe Ter	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+3%)	17mo	$198,000	$118	68
9837 Sandringham Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (+10%)	19mo	$160,000	$90	56
4597 Leytonstone Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,421 (-12%)	3mo	$255,000	$179	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,388
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $14,096
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14031

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,340

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $319	+0% $273	+5% $226	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $206	+0% $273	+5% $339	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $315	base $273	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,143 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$645/yr (+$54/mo · 43.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$150
• After-tax cash flow: $3,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,741

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.27%
• Current HPI: 344.136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $165,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,498 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.