721 S 27Th Ave · Show Low, AZ 85901

$135,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1979 6,098 sqft lot Est $227k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac surrounded by mature pine trees, the covered front porch is the perfect place to relax and enjoy the peaceful mountain atmosphere. Large rooms, abundant natural light, a fenced backyard area, and a detached storage building add both charm and functionality. A new furnace and water heater have been recently installed. Whether you're looking for a cozy mountain getaway, investment opportunity, or your next home, this property is ready for immediate enjoyment. Experience mountain living at its best in one of Park Valley's most desirable settings.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• New furnace
• New water heater

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned residential; Road maintenance by city; Subdivision: Park Valley
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer available; Metered water (COSL); Electric service with individual meter (APS); Natural gas available; Power available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Single wide; One story
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Metal pitched roof; Built on a foundation appropriate for manufactured homes
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Partly fenced; Property adjoins private land; Tall pines on lot; Trees on property; Covered patio; Utility building; Street paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Pantry; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Gas water heater (over 30 gallons)
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairs; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in hallway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikolaus Homestead Elementary School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #371 of 1,109 statewide, top 34%, 389 students, 42% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 895 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $135k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.93%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,576
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2560 W Young	0.10mi	2/1.5 (+1)	728 (-7%)	10mo	$243,000	$334	68
2398 W Whipple	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-8%)	24mo	$194,500	$270	53
2350 W Whipple St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	896 (+14%)	20mo	$259,000	$289	41
640 S Clark Rd	0.52mi	2/2.0 (+1)	896 (+14%)	5mo	$190,000	$212	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,032
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $49,667
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 895
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $578	-5% $540	+0% $502	+5% $464	+10% $425
Rent	-10% $372	-5% $437	+0% $502	+5% $567	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $570	-0.5pp $536	base $502	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1351 W Sierra Buena Ct Show Low, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,650	$2.12	45d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $135,000 Active
19. 2008-08-07
    soldstatus $61,000
20. 2005-11-03
    soldstatus $54,500
21. 1998-07-06
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 1996-07-11
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 98.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$964
• After-tax cash flow: $5,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+285.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $135,000 WMMLS
• 2008-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1998-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $449 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.