2603 Poplar Dr #70 · Pinetop-Lakeside, AZ 85935

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 1959 $31/sqft · 84% below area $395/mo HOA · 23% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this delightful, fully furnished 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in the sought-after Pinetop community, providing 960 square feet of comfortable living. Originally built in 1959, this inviting residence boasts a charming front covered porch--ideal for unwinding and soaking in the mountain air. Perfect for year-round living or seasonal escapes, this move-in-ready home offers easy access via Poplar, making your commute and outings a breeze. Buyers have to get approval with the Community before Seller will accept Offer.

Key facts

• Built 1959
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.1% vs local median 1.9% in Pinetop-Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.87%
• DSCR: 5.89
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,375
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -84.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $44,245
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.24×
• Total profit: $102,486
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85935

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $762

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $787	-5% $777	+0% $767	+5% $756	+10% $746
Rent	-10% $630	-5% $698	+0% $767	+5% $835	+10% $903
Rate	-1.0pp $782	-0.5pp $774	base $767	+0.5pp $759	+1.0pp $751

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $395 · $4,740/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $29,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-06
    days on market $29,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $29,900 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Discover this delightful, fully furnished 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in the sought-after Pinetop community, providing 960 square feet of comfortable living. Originally built in 1959, this inviting residence boasts a charming front covered porch--ideal for unwinding and soaking in the mountain air. Perfect for year-round living or seasonal escapes, this move-in-ready home offers easy access via Poplar, making your commute and outings a breeze. Buyers have to get approval with the Community before Seller will accept Offer.

19. 2025-09-01
    price $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $9,575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,298
• After-tax cash flow: $6,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Pinetop-Lakeside

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinetop-Lakeside, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,744

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Native American 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% French 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.71%
• Current HPI: 391.0283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $29,900 WMMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $34,900 WMMLS