2054 Munich Ave · Moraine, OH 45439

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1974 8,882 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors and flippers! Plenty of upside potential in this bi-level home in the German Village neighborhood of Moraine. Three bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, additional square footage off the back of the home that leads onto a deck. Attached 2 car garage and a partial basement off of the lower level leaves plenty of room for storage. Home will need a full rehab, sold as-is, cash or hard money only.

Key facts

• Bi-level home
• Partial basement
• Deck

Tags

• BI-LEVEL HOME
• GERMAN VILLAGE NEIGHBORHOOD
• DECK
• PARTIAL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.5% in Moraine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,167 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• West Carrollton City (suburban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #540 of 656 in OH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $103k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.75%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,748
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 Dorf Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-10%)	9mo	$190,000	$103	65
107 Trace Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-5%)	6mo	$290,000	$149	60
3024 Dorf Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,808 (-12%)	15mo	$210,000	$116	52
1882 Charles Ct	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,920 (-6%)	3mo	$305,000	$159	48
1914 Amelia Way	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (-7%)	13mo	$325,000	$171	46
6017 Aviation Trl	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (-7%)	6mo	$295,000	$155	44
3085 Pinnacle Park Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,788 (-13%)	23mo	$202,000	$113	36
1890 Amelia Way	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (-7%)	19mo	$280,000	$147	34
1877 Amelia Way	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,900 (-7%)	11mo	$304,550	$160	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,638
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $28,910
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45439

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,665/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-02-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-02-05
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 1999-02-10
   soldstatus $102,900
4. 1993-12-21
   soldstatus $89,000
5. 1991-08-19
   soldstatus $81,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,665
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $3,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Carrollton City
• NCES district ID: 3904505
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,209
• Composite: 33.71/100
• National rank: #5380
• State rank: #540 of 656 in OH

Livability — Moraine

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1167
• US rank: #25010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moraine, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 11,914
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 11,914
• Household income: $52,035
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.06%
• Current HPI: 287.2064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+46.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-02-05 Listed $120,000 Dayton MLS
• 1999-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $102,900 Public Records
• 1993-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $81,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,665 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.