Adventure 90 Hidden Creek Plan · Toledo, OH 48133

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured · 85 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With a brand new home at Hidden Creek you will be sure to feel right at home. Acquired in 2022, this quiet manufactured home community in Eire, Michigan is conveniently located near your home town essentials. These high-quality, turnkey ready homes by UMH Properties, Inc. provide the perfect blend of affordability and sought-after features including open concept floor plans and custom touches. When you buy or rent a manufactured home with UMH Properties, Inc. , we work with you every step of the way. From leasing and financing to move-in day, we guarantee a hassle-free sales experience. Our community comes with a variety of amenities to give our residents easy, stress-free living including

Key facts

• On site management
• Swimming pools
• 24 hour maintenance

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLANS
• CUSTOM TOUCHES
• 24 HOUR MAINTENANCE
• ON SITE MANAGEMENT
• COMMUNITY CENTERS
• SWIMMING POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $159,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Plan home (Adventure 90 Hidden Creek); Active listing
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model home (Adventure 90 Hidden Creek plan)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($77/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Mason Consolidated Schools (Monroe) (rural): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #155 of 540 in MI (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,687 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-25,482
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,579
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $62	+0% $6	+5% $-49	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-49	+0% $6	+5% $62	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $47	base $6	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6400 S Dixie Hwy Erie, MI	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	15d	1	0.22mi
6255 S Telegraph Erie, MI	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,288	$1.09	15d	3	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 66 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$630
• After-tax cash flow: $707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mason Consolidated Schools (Monroe)
• NCES district ID: 2623100
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,798
• Composite: 37.72/100
• National rank: #4355
• State rank: #155 of 540 in MI

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe · 13,010 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• Population (ZIP): 6,711
• Household income: $65,867
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.5

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.33%
• Current HPI: 152.4502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B