4874 Sh 58 · Gouverneur, NY 13642

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 1.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property was purchased in 2011 by current sellers, with plans of adding it to their rental portfolio. It has three bedrooms, one bath, kitchen, dining room and living room. There is a full basement. They had a new roof installed in 2014. They have now decided to sell the property and let someone else turn it into their home. There is a well and septic, but condition is unknown. This home sits on 1.4 acres. It will require a complete remodel, but the bones are good. Call a licensed Realtor today to schedule your private showing.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Fresh paint
• New sheet rock

Tags

• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW SHEET ROCK
• LOWERED CEILINGS
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW WATER PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 7.4% in Gouverneur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#605 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Gouverneur Central School District (town): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #582 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.45%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,408
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4932 State Highway 58	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,290 (+6%)	24mo	$173,000	$134	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $62,187
• Equity at exit: $45,056

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.69×
• Total profit: $150,535
• Equity at exit: $82,685

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13642

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $282/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $531

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-22
   soldstatus $53,000
2. 2025-10-30
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-15
   listed $69,900 Active
4. 2022-08-11
   soldstatus $21,000 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   This property was purchased in 2011 by current sellers, with plans of adding it to their rental portfolio. It has three bedrooms, one bath, kitchen, dining room and living room. There is a full basement. They had a new roof installed in 2014. They have now decided to sell the property and let someone else turn it into their home. There is a well and septic, but condition is unknown. This home sits on 1.4 acres. It will require a complete remodel, but the bones are good. Call a licensed Realtor today to schedule your private showing.

5. 2022-04-20
   listed $29,000 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   This property was purchased in 2011 by current sellers, with plans of adding it to their rental portfolio. It has three bedrooms, one bath, kitchen, dining room and living room. There is a full basement. They had a new roof installed in 2014. They have now decided to sell the property and let someone else turn it into their home. There is a well and septic, but condition is unknown. This home sits on 1.4 acres. It will require a complete remodel, but the bones are good. Call a licensed Realtor today to schedule your private showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $282 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$449/yr (+$37/mo · 159.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$282
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,675
• After-tax cash flow: $6,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gouverneur Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,217
• Composite: 24.08/100
• National rank: #7757
• State rank: #582 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gouverneur

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #10956

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,018

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 349.6603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+82.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-30 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $69,900 SLCMLS
• 2022-08-11 Sold (MLS) $21,000 SLCMLS
• 2022-04-20 Listed $29,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $282 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.