53 2nd Ave · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$189,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1928 6,480 sqft lot Est $272k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TOTAL HOUSE UPDATED, ELECTRIC, FURNACE, ROOF, WINDOWS, FRONT PORCH, KITCHEN, FLOORS, GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS IN BASEMENT, CENTRAL AIR, (SEPARATE BREAKERS FOR GARAGE). LARGE CLOSETS IN ALL BEDROOMS, 2 BEDROOMS UP & 2 BEDROOMS DOWN. SKYLIGHT. VINYL SIDING. NEW 2.5 CAR GARAGE.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Outdoor space
• Above-ground pool

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• RECENT MECHANICAL UPDATES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Enclosed porch; Porch; Patio; Fully fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Bedroom on main level; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,223/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.77%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,064
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 5th Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,429 (+9%)	3mo	$215,000	$150	70
732 Barrally St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,302 (-0%)	2mo	$280,000	$215	68
203 Edward St	0.34mi	4/1.0	1,202 (-8%)	5mo	$250,000	$208	66
223 Schenck St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-2%)	2mo	$169,400	$132	64
120 7th Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,496 (+14%)	1mo	$87,500	$58	56
189 Lincoln Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (+10%)	4mo	$231,080	$161	51
247 Oliver	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (-10%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	51
671 Treichler St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,445 (+10%)	3mo	$300,000	$208	48
254 Spaulding St	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,137 (-13%)	1mo	$244,000	$215	48
871 Payne Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-12%)	0mo	$260,000	$227	40
286 Bryant St	0.70mi	4/1.0	1,117 (-15%)	3mo	$180,500	$162	40
64 Oakwood Ter	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,464 (+12%)	1mo	$315,000	$215	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $57,535
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $194,318
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,885/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $1,231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	1d	12	0.28mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.58mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	10d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $189,900 Active
2. 2022-06-13
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed Sale or Rented
3. 2022-04-12
   historical
4. 2022-04-12
   listed $165,000
5. 2011-08-04
   soldstatus $78,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   TOTAL HOUSE UPDATED, ELECTRIC, FURNACE, ROOF, WINDOWS, FRONT PORCH, KITCHEN, FLOORS, GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS IN BASEMENT, CENTRAL AIR, (SEPARATE BREAKERS FOR GARAGE). LARGE CLOSETS IN ALL BEDROOMS, 2 BEDROOMS UP & 2 BEDROOMS DOWN. SKYLIGHT. VINYL SIDING. NEW 2.5 CAR GARAGE.

6. 2011-07-28
   soldstatus $78,000
7. 2010-12-07
   listed $86,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   TOTAL HOUSE UPDATED, ELECTRIC, FURNACE, ROOF, WINDOWS, FRONT PORCH, KITCHEN, FLOORS, GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS IN BASEMENT, CENTRAL AIR, (SEPARATE BREAKERS FOR GARAGE). LARGE CLOSETS IN ALL BEDROOMS, 2 BEDROOMS UP & 2 BEDROOMS DOWN. SKYLIGHT. VINYL SIDING. NEW 2.5 CAR GARAGE.

8. 2001-04-02
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,047 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$162/yr (+$14/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,885
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,094
• − Management: −$3,094
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $12,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,997
• After-tax cash flow: $11,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+386.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-06-13 Sold (MLS) $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-04-12 Listed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-04-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2011-08-04 Sold (MLS) $78,000 WNYREIS
• 2011-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-07 Listed $86,000 WNYREIS
• 2001-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,885 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.