3138 Mobley Bridge Rd · Hogansville, GA 30230

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1989 1.00 ac lot $188/sqft · 7% above area Est $219k · 18% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to Sell!! Bring offer!! Motivated Seller!! Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch located just minutes from the heart of Hogansville and its beautiful downtown area. Cherry hardwood floors add warmth and elegance throughout the living spaces. The functional layout offers comfortable living with well-sized bedrooms. Situated on a spacious 1-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. The fenced-in backyard is perfect for pets, gatherings, or simply unwinding in your own private space. Priced to sell, this property presents an incredible opportunity whether you're searching for a primary residence or a smart investment. Don't miss your chance to own a home that offers both value and charm in a convenient location. Property being sold "as is"

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Hogansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#425 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Troup County (rural): math 26% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #109 of 174 in GA (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 474 units permitted in Troup County in 2024 (87 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Troup County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,339 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,469
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -17.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Poplar St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	999 (+4%)	0mo	$96,000	$96	75
408 Poplar St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	989 (+3%)	4mo	$170,000	$172	74
406 Poplar St	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	989 (+3%)	4mo	$180,000	$182	74
100 Holmes St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	907 (-6%)	9mo	$120,000	$132	64
500 Oak St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-12%)	10mo	$189,000	$222	56
227 Oak St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,007 (+5%)	18mo	$196,600	$195	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-38,337
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-45,438
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30230

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $607/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,354

Max offer price $154,816

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3136 Mobley Bridge Rd Apt G Hogansville, GA	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	5d	1	0.06mi
406 E Main St Hogansville, GA	2.0	1.5	900	$999	$1.11	24d	1	0.73mi
406 E Main St Hogansville, GA	2.0	1.5	900	$999	$1.11	43d	1	0.73mi
225 Brooks Rd Hogansville, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-15
   price $172,500 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Priced to Sell!! Bring offer!! Motivated Seller!! Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch located just minutes from the heart of Hogansville and its beautiful downtown area. Cherry hardwood floors add warmth and elegance throughout the living spaces. The functional layout offers comfortable living with well-sized bedrooms. Situated on a spacious 1-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. The fenced-in backyard is perfect for pets, gatherings, or simply unwinding in your own private space. Priced to sell, this property presents an incredible opportunity whether you're searching for a primary residence or a smart investment. Don't miss your chance to own a home that offers both value and charm in a convenient location. Property being sold "as is"

2. 2026-04-06
   listed $184,500 New 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Priced to Sell!! Bring offer!! Motivated Seller!! Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch located just minutes from the heart of Hogansville and its beautiful downtown area. Cherry hardwood floors add warmth and elegance throughout the living spaces. The functional layout offers comfortable living with well-sized bedrooms. Situated on a spacious 1-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. The fenced-in backyard is perfect for pets, gatherings, or simply unwinding in your own private space. Priced to sell, this property presents an incredible opportunity whether you're searching for a primary residence or a smart investment. Don't miss your chance to own a home that offers both value and charm in a convenient location. Property being sold "as is"

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,049/yr (+$87/mo · 172.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$607
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$4,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $-511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troup County
• NCES district ID: 1300001
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,354
• Composite: 23.3/100
• National rank: #7920
• State rank: #109 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hogansville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #20915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hogansville, GA
• City population: 9,022
• Population (ZIP): 9,022

Population outlook (Troup County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,537 people
• By 2030: 78,250 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 83,184 · +10.1%
• By 2050: 87,167 · +15.4%
• By 2075: 95,643 · +26.6%
• By 2100: 94,234 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Troup

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.4) · D 37.6% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.4 2020: R+21.9 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.98%
• Current HPI: 315.5032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $172,500 GAMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $184,500 GAMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $607 · +45.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.