3264 Essingham Site #173 · Blackman, MI 49201

$86,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Room to Grow, Space to Thrive in this Beautiful Home! "SELF TOUR THIS HOME TODAY!"

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 87 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3264 Essingham Site #173, Jackson MI 49201; Status: Active
• Financial info: Listed for $79,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence (Spec, Plan: The Reserves)
• Construction: New construction (Plan name: The Reserves)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,667 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northwest Community Schools (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northwest Early Elementary School (869 students, 61% FRL); Northwest Kidder Middle School (math 14% / reading 41%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 790 students, 50% FRL); Northwest High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 972 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $81,686 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.37%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,720
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3844 Havenwood Blvd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-13%)	14mo	$53,000	$36	52
3717 Cypress	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-10%)	11mo	$40,000	$26	47
3806 Catalpa	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-13%)	14mo	$42,500	$29	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $33,296
• Equity at exit: $12,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $116,621
• Equity at exit: $7,514

Cash invested: $24,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49201

• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,304/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $86,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $646	+0% $616	+5% $586	+10% $556
Rent	-10% $494	-5% $555	+0% $616	+5% $677	+10% $737
Rate	-1.0pp $660	-0.5pp $638	base $616	+0.5pp $593	+1.0pp $570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,725
• Closing costs: $2,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3999 Sherwood Lakes Blvd Jackson, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,339	$1.27	46d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $86,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $86,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $86,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $86,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $86,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $86,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $86,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $86,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,868
• − Property taxes: −$1,304
• − Insurance: −$434
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − Depreciation: −$2,528
• Taxable income: $6,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $5,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626010
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,509
• Composite: 25.88/100
• National rank: #7342
• State rank: #360 of 540 in MI

Livability — Blackman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 49,107
• Household income: $74,484
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.89%
• Current HPI: 185.3773
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.32%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B