512 Park Ln · Cleveland, TX 77327

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 210 Days on market

Built 1965 0.38 ac lot $92/sqft · 12% below area Est $181k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home sits on a spacious lot surrounded by mature trees, offering privacy and room to enjoy outdoor living. The large yard provides endless possibilities — gardening, pets, playground, or future additions — and NO HOA means the freedom to make the property truly your own. Step inside to find original wood floors that add warmth and timeless character throughout the home. The layout offers comfortable 2 living spaces and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living and hosting guests. Located in an established and peaceful neighborhood with quick access to schools, shopping, dining, and Hwy 59/69 for convenience. This property is full of potential. MOTIVATED SELLER!

Key facts

• Large yard
• Spacious lot
• Original wood floors

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• LARGE YARD
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• QUICK ACCESS TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($709/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,408
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -12.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
702 S Roosevelt Ave S	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,663 (-4%)	9mo	$225,800	$136	80
4509 5914 21	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+1%)	3mo	$265,000	$151	74
211 S Cleveland Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+1%)	5mo	$229,900	$132	71
509 Hancock Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+1%)	9mo	$199,000	$114	62
677 Maria Elena Way	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-8%)	0mo	$190,990	$119	61
662 Maria Elena Way	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-8%)	1mo	$192,990	$121	60
1208 Denison Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-5%)	7mo	$215,000	$131	56
670 Maria Elena Way	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,954 (+13%)	1mo	$206,990	$106	50
100 S Mason Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,881 (+9%)	12mo	$179,900	$96	47
501 W Houston St	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,843 (+6%)	7mo	$250,000	$136	46
808 Parkhurst Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-9%)	11mo	$249,900	$159	44
106 Jordan Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (-13%)	2mo	$145,000	$97	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,204
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,235
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,173/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,579

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Johnson ST Unit J Cleveland, TX	4.0	1.0	1346	$1,350	$1.00	7d	1	0.48mi
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	1d	1	0.82mi
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	1d	1	0.92mi
1018 Green Ave Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1337	$1,500	$1.12	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $159,000 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This charming home sits on a spacious lot surrounded by mature trees, offering privacy and room to enjoy outdoor living. The large yard provides endless possibilities — gardening, pets, playground, or future additions — and NO HOA means the freedom to make the property truly your own. Step inside to find original wood floors that add warmth and timeless character throughout the home. The layout offers comfortable 2 living spaces and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living and hosting guests. Located in an established and peaceful neighborhood with quick access to schools, shopping, dining, and Hwy 59/69 for convenience. This property is full of potential. MOTIVATED SELLER!

15. 2026-03-18
    price $170,000 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This charming home sits on a spacious lot surrounded by mature trees, offering privacy and room to enjoy outdoor living. The large yard provides endless possibilities — gardening, pets, playground, or future additions — and NO HOA means the freedom to make the property truly your own. Step inside to find original wood floors that add warmth and timeless character throughout the home. The layout offers comfortable 2 living spaces and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living and hosting guests. Located in an established and peaceful neighborhood with quick access to schools, shopping, dining, and Hwy 59/69 for convenience. This property is full of potential. MOTIVATED SELLER!

16. 2026-02-20
    price $185,000 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This charming home sits on a spacious lot surrounded by mature trees, offering privacy and room to enjoy outdoor living. The large yard provides endless possibilities — gardening, pets, playground, or future additions — and NO HOA means the freedom to make the property truly your own. Step inside to find original wood floors that add warmth and timeless character throughout the home. The layout offers comfortable 2 living spaces and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living and hosting guests. Located in an established and peaceful neighborhood with quick access to schools, shopping, dining, and Hwy 59/69 for convenience. This property is full of potential. MOTIVATED SELLER!

17. 2026-01-30
    price $188,999 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This charming home sits on a spacious lot surrounded by mature trees, offering privacy and room to enjoy outdoor living. The large yard provides endless possibilities — gardening, pets, playground, or future additions — and NO HOA means the freedom to make the property truly your own. Step inside to find original wood floors that add warmth and timeless character throughout the home. The layout offers comfortable 2 living spaces and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living and hosting guests. Located in an established and peaceful neighborhood with quick access to schools, shopping, dining, and Hwy 59/69 for convenience. This property is full of potential. MOTIVATED SELLER!

18. 2025-12-05
    price $189,999 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This charming home sits on a spacious lot surrounded by mature trees, offering privacy and room to enjoy outdoor living. The large yard provides endless possibilities — gardening, pets, playground, or future additions — and NO HOA means the freedom to make the property truly your own. Step inside to find original wood floors that add warmth and timeless character throughout the home. The layout offers comfortable 2 living spaces and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living and hosting guests. Located in an established and peaceful neighborhood with quick access to schools, shopping, dining, and Hwy 59/69 for convenience. This property is full of potential. MOTIVATED SELLER!

19. 2025-11-20
    listed $200,000 Active 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This charming home sits on a spacious lot surrounded by mature trees, offering privacy and room to enjoy outdoor living. The large yard provides endless possibilities — gardening, pets, playground, or future additions — and NO HOA means the freedom to make the property truly your own. Step inside to find original wood floors that add warmth and timeless character throughout the home. The layout offers comfortable 2 living spaces and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living and hosting guests. Located in an established and peaceful neighborhood with quick access to schools, shopping, dining, and Hwy 59/69 for convenience. This property is full of potential. MOTIVATED SELLER!

20. 2019-06-25
    historical
21. 2019-06-14
    status Active
22. 2019-06-14
    status Pending
23. 2019-06-03
    status Option Pending
24. 2019-04-30
    listed $137,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,173 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,173 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$4,173
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$438
• After-tax cash flow: $1,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $188,999 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $189,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-06-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-06-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-30 Listed $137,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,173 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.