81-29 156th Ave #4 · New York, NY 11414

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · Condo · 158 Days on market

Built 1965

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Howard Beach/ Lindenwood, 2nd Floor Co Op, 1 Brm. Garden Apartment. Updated Kitchen W/ Granite, New Stove & Refrigerator, Hardwood Floors, New Blinds, Bathroom Is Original. A/C In Sleeve, Laundry Room, Parking Space Available (Wait List), Small Pets Allowed. Needs Some Updates.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• En suite bath
• Prime location

Tags

• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• EN SUITE BATH
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $325k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-20,981
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $22,672
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11414

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,472 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $721	-5% $609	+0% $497	+5% $384	+10% $272
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $359	+0% $497	+5% $634	+10% $771
Rate	-1.0pp $660	-0.5pp $579	base $497	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
156-49 76th St Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,300	$2.64	19d	1	0.34mi
14912 83rd St Howard Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,200	$2.56	27d	1	0.40mi
149-09 84th St Unit 2 Howard Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	750	$3,200	$4.27	27d	1	0.42mi
132-13 81st St #1 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1280	$4,100	$3.20	5d	1	0.84mi
13214 81st St Ozone Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1280	$4,100	$3.20	14d	1	0.84mi
155-69 99th St Unit 2nd Floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$3,200	$2.13	23d	1	0.85mi
10541 90th St Ozone Park, NY	3.0	2.0	1264	$4,111	$3.25	27d	1	1.10mi
9512 108th Ave Ozone Park, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	14d	1	1.14mi
81-64 102nd Ave Unit 3rd Fl Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,600	$2.60	0d	1	1.24mi
10215 Dunton Ct Howard Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	27d	1	1.27mi
10929 103rd St Ozone Park, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,400	$2.83	23d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   price $325,000
3. 2025-11-04
   status Active
4. 2025-09-16
   status Pending
5. 2025-08-29
   price $339,000
6. 2025-08-21
   status Active
7. 2025-06-11
   listed $349,000 Active
8. 2016-07-14
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Howard Beach/ Lindenwood, 2nd Floor Co Op, 1 Brm. Garden Apartment. Updated Kitchen W/ Granite, New Stove & Refrigerator, Hardwood Floors, New Blinds, Bathroom Is Original. A/C In Sleeve, Laundry Room, Parking Space Available (Wait List), Small Pets Allowed. Needs Some Updates.

9. 2016-03-10
   status Under Contract 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Howard Beach/ Lindenwood, 2nd Floor Co Op, 1 Brm. Garden Apartment. Updated Kitchen W/ Granite, New Stove & Refrigerator, Hardwood Floors, New Blinds, Bathroom Is Original. A/C In Sleeve, Laundry Room, Parking Space Available (Wait List), Small Pets Allowed. Needs Some Updates.

10. 2016-01-05
    listed $109,000 New 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Howard Beach/ Lindenwood, 2nd Floor Co Op, 1 Brm. Garden Apartment. Updated Kitchen W/ Granite, New Stove & Refrigerator, Hardwood Floors, New Blinds, Bathroom Is Original. A/C In Sleeve, Laundry Room, Parking Space Available (Wait List), Small Pets Allowed. Needs Some Updates.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,333
• − Management: −$3,333
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$200
• After-tax cash flow: $5,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,308
• Household income: $95,051
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 985.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.02%
• Current HPI: 206.6334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+198.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $339,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-14 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MLSLI
• 2016-03-10 Pending — MLSLI
• 2016-01-05 Listed $109,000 MLSLI