21 Nevins St · Ellenville, NY 12428

$250,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,103 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1910 0.85 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

A beautifully maintained home nestled in the heart of Ellenville, NY. This charming property blends small-town warmth with modern convenience, offering a peaceful retreat surrounded by the beauty of the Shawangunk Mountains. Step inside to find bright, open living spaces, a spacious kitchen perfect for gatherings, and cozy bedrooms filled with natural light. Enjoy your morning coffee on the front or back porch or unwind in the private backyard, ideal for gardening, entertaining, or simply relaxing. Located on a quiet residential street, this home is just minutes from Ellenville’s vibrant Main Street, featuring local shops, restaurants, Outdoor enthusiasts will love the nearby hiking t

Key facts

• Nearby hiking trails
• Private backyard
• Waterfalls

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL STREET
• MINUTES FROM MAIN STREET
• NEARBY HIKING TRAILS
• WATERFALLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Ellenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#961 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellenville Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #534 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellenville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 674 students, 61% FRL); Ellenville Junior/Senior High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 731 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ellenville Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $250k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,008 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.61%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $122,758
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $372,118
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12428

• Home prices YoY: 20.0%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $219,492

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2025-03-30
   historical $1,300
4. 2025-03-28
   listed $1,300
5. 2025-03-28
   historical $1,300
6. 2025-02-21
   listed $1,300
7. 2025-02-21
   historical $1,300
8. 2025-02-13
   listed $1,300
9. 2025-01-27
   soldstatus $62,500
10. 2025-01-17
    historical $1,300
11. 2025-01-15
    listed $1,300
12. 2024-01-30
    historical $1,200
13. 2023-11-28
    listed $1,200
14. 2023-06-23
    historical
15. 2019-12-30
    historical
16. 2019-08-06
    listed $399,000
17. 2019-08-06
    listed $399,000
18. 2019-08-06
    listed $399,000
19. 2019-07-01
    historical
20. 2018-10-19
    listed $420,000
21. 2018-10-18
    listed $420,000
22. 2018-10-17
    listed $420,000
23. 2017-04-20
    soldstatus $260,000
24. 2017-04-07
    soldstatus $260,000
25. 2016-04-28
    listed $294,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610500
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,937
• Composite: 33.22/100
• National rank: #5525
• State rank: #534 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellenville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #18871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,972

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 62.17%
• Current HPI: 372.5352
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-30 Rental Removed $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-28 Listed for Rent $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-28 Rental Removed $1,300 LEASESTAR
• 2025-02-21 Listed for Rent $1,300 LEASESTAR
• 2025-02-21 Rental Removed $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2025-02-13 Listed for Rent $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2025-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2025-01-15 Listed for Rent $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-30 Rental Removed $1,200 LEASESTAR
• 2023-11-28 Listed for Rent $1,200 LEASESTAR
• 2023-06-23 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2019-12-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-06 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-06 Listed $399,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-08-06 Listed $399,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-07-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-19 Listed $420,000 HVCRMLS
• 2018-10-18 Listed $420,000 HVCRMLS
• 2018-10-17 Listed $420,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-07 Sold (MLS) $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-28 Listed $294,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,256 · +51.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.